A multi-scale biophysical model to inform regional management of coral reefs in the western Philippines and South China Sea

Melbourne-Thomas, Jess; Johnson, Craig R.; Aliño, Porfirio M.; Geronimo, Rollan C.; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Gurney, Georgina G.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.033

Cited by 53 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…While the emphasis of our study, and of previous efforts to model coral reefs (e.g., McClanahan 1995, McCook et al 2001, Mumby 2006, Melbourne-Thomas et al 2011, has been on biophysical scenarios and responses, scenario projection is arguably most informative for management and policy making when it addresses linked biophysical-socioeconomic dynamics (e.g., Gray et al 2006, Shafer 2007) and captures both socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of reef state (Hatziolos 2006, McField andRichardsKramer 2007). Agent-based modeling approaches have been applied successfully to model populations of marine resource users and to evaluate strategies for managing multiple extractive activities (Gray et al 2006).…”

Section: Potential Management Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The behavior of the local model has been evaluated in detail; it realistically captures coralÀmacroalgal ''phase-shift'' transitions that are characteristic of coral reefs (Knowlton 1992, Mumby et al 2007b). Since our regional-scale model is designed to be used in decision support applications for coral reef systems, it is hereafter referred to as CORSET (Coral Reef Scenario Evaluation Tool; Melbourne- Thomas et al 2011). CORSET is implemented in the open-source object-oriented Python Programming Language (version 2.5; Python Software Foundation, Hampton, New Hampshire, USA).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system

Melbourne-Thomas¹,

Johnson²,

Fung³

et al. 2011

Ecological Applications

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Abstract. The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef systems.

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Section: Potential Management Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system

Melbourne-Thomas¹,

Johnson²,

Fung³

et al. 2011

Ecological Applications

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“…Coupling SimReef and CORSET sacrifices generality; although CORSET is portable between different biogeographic regions as a stand-alone model (Melbourne-Thomas et al 2011a), the coupled system is specific to Quintana Roo. This is because the existing SimReef tool is region specific; instead of deriving relationships for relatively well understood interactions between organisms (as in CORSET), SimReef was built using a series of assumptions based on much less understood socioeconomic trajectories.…”

Section: Limitations and Recommendations For Integrating Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupling Biophysical and Socioeconomic Models for Coral Reef Systems in Quintana Roo, Mexican Caribbean

Melbourne‐Thomas¹,

Johnson²,

Perez³

et al. 2011

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Transdisciplinary approaches that consider both socioeconomic and biophysical processes are central to understanding and managing rapid change in coral reef systems worldwide. To date, there have been limited attempts to couple the two sets of processes in dynamic models for coral reefs, and these attempts are confined to reef systems in developed countries. We present an approach to coupling existing biophysical and socioeconomic models for coral reef systems in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. The biophysical model is multiscale, using dynamic equations to capture local-scale ecological processes on individual reefs, with reefs connected at regional scales by the ocean transport of larval propagules. The agent-based socioeconomic model simulates changes in tourism, fisheries, and urbanization in the Quintana Roo region. Despite differences in the formulation and currencies of the two models, we were able to successfully modify and integrate them to synchronize and define information flows and feedbacks between them. A preliminary evaluation of the coupled model system indicates that the model gives reasonable predictions for fisheries and ecological variables and can be used to examine scenarios for future socialecological change in Quintana Roo. We provide recommendations for where efforts might usefully be focused in future attempts to integrate models of biophysical and socioeconomic processes, based on the limitations of our coupled system.

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“…Along with increasingly complex systems, inclusive socio-ecology has naturally grown with the emergence of resilience to elucidate and efficiently consider the dynamics of interactions between people and nature [20][21][22][23]. Tipping points and thresholds reflect significant theoretical discoveries related to the resilience of socio-economic and ecological (SEE) systems, particularly in coastal and marine ecosystems [24,25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the Socio-Economic and Ecological Resilience of Japanese Coral Reefscapes across a Decade

Collin

Nadaoka

Bernardo

2015

IJGI

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Shallow coral reefs threatened by climate change must be spatio-temporally analyzed in terms of their protection of coastal human populations. This study combines Japanese spatio-temporal gradients of population/asset and coral buffering exposure to stress-inducing and stress-mitigating factors so that the socio-economic and ecological (SEE) resilience tied to coral reefscapes can be regionally mapped (1200 km) at a fine resolution (1 arcsec) over a decade (11 years). Fuzzy logic was employed to associated environmental factors based on the related population/asset/coral buffering responses, as found in the literature. Once the factors were weighted according to their resilience contributions, temporally static patterns were evident: (1) a negative correlation occurs between coral buffering resilience and latitude; (2) the least resilient islands are low-lying, deprived of wide reef barriers, and located on the eastern and southern boundaries of the Nansei archipelago; (3) the southwestern-most, middle and northeastern-most islands have the same SEE resilience; and (4) Sekisei Lagoon islands have a very high coral buffering resilience. To overcome uncertainty, future studies should focus on the socio-ecological adaptive capacity, fine-scale ecological processes (such as coral and fish functional groups) and the prediction of the flood risks in the coming decades.

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A multi-scale biophysical model to inform regional management of coral reefs in the western Philippines and South China Sea

Cited by 53 publications

References 98 publications

Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system

Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system

Coupling Biophysical and Socioeconomic Models for Coral Reef Systems in Quintana Roo, Mexican Caribbean

Mapping the Socio-Economic and Ecological Resilience of Japanese Coral Reefscapes across a Decade

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