A Multiresolution Ensemble Hybrid 4DEnVar for Global Numerical Prediction

Abstract

A multiresolution ensemble (MR-ENS) method is developed to resolve a wider range of scales of the background error covariance (BEC) in the hybrid four-dimensional ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) while saving computational costs. MR-ENS is implemented in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) hybrid 4DEnVar. MR-ENS generates analysis increment by incorporating high-resolution static BEC and flow-dependent ensemble BECs from both high and low resolutions. MR-ENS is compared with three 4DEnVar update approaches: 1) the single-resolution (SR)-Low approach where the analysis increments are generated from the ensemble BEC and the static BEC at the same low resolution; 2) the dual-resolution (DR) approach where the analysis increment is generated using the high-resolution static BEC and low-resolution ensemble BEC; and 3) the SR-High approach, which is the same as 1) except that all covariances are at high-resolution. Experiments show that MR-ENS improves global and tropical cyclone track forecasts compared to SR-Low and DR. Inclusion of the high-resolution ensemble leads to increased background ensemble spread, better fitting of the background to observations, increased effective ranks, more accurate ensemble error correlation, and increased power of analysis increment at small scales. The majority of the improvement of MR-ENS relative to SR-Low is due to the partial use of high-resolution background ensemble. Compared to SR-High, MR-ENS decreases the overall cost by about 40% and shows comparable global and tropical cyclone track forecast performances. Diagnostics show that particularly in the tropics, MR-ENS improves the analysis increment over a wide range of scales and increases the effective rank of the ensemble BEC to the degree comparable to SR-High.