A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information

Abstract

Emergency decision-making (EDM) is of paramount importance, especially when the emergency occurs. The evolution nature of the emergency, such as multistage, uncertainty, dynamic, and information updating, has been playing a key role in the dynamic emergency decision-making process. However, most existing studies ignored the aforementioned nature. Our approach accounts for the dynamics inherent to a real emergency decision-making process and presents a multistage dynamic emergency decision-making (MSDEDM) procedure of a dynamic programming model based on decision-makers’ psychological reference satisfactory degree. Firstly, interval-valued trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVTrIFNs) are used to depict the relevant fuzziness and uncertainty of information. Secondly, by considering the dynamic evolution process of emergency and the decision-makers’ psychological reference expectation effect, the principle of MSDEDM approach is presented. Based on the analysis, the dynamic model on the new psychological reference satisfactory parameter formula is presented to obtain the optimal satisfaction and weight of each stage. Then, the value utility function based on the DMs’ risk attitude is proposed to obtain the comprehensive value of each emergency alternative for each stage and achieve the ranking results of each stage. Furthermore, a case study involving the transportation emergency decision-making problem demonstrates that the proposed method can achieve selection of the optimal alternatives for each stage, as well as adjustment of the alternatives for neighbouring stages. Finally, the comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis for the results are used to further verify the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.

An Improved EDAS Method for the Multi-Attribute Decision Making Based on the Dynamic Expectation Level of Decision Makers

“…In the actual decision making process, the decision makers often apply the linguistic variables to describe the evaluation value. According to Liu [22], the linguistic variables are transformed into interval-valued intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (IITrFNs), which is given in Table 2. In stage t k , the expert E q evaluates the emergency plan.…”

“…In the emergency rescue during a flood disaster (adapted from Liu [22]), the description of emergency plan A i (i = 1, 2, 3) is given in Table 7, and the real-time description of the environment in different stages t k (k = 1, 2, 3) is given in Table 8. The decision makers E q (q = 1, 2, 3) evaluate the emergency plan from the following five attributes: feasibility (C 1 ), integrity (C 2 ), operability (C 3 ), timeliness (C 4 ) and economy (C 5 ).…”

“…(1) Wan [19] and Liu [22] do not consider the expectation level of decision makers for the emergency plan, the proposed method in the paper makes up for their shortcomings, which is beneficial to improve the efficiency of the emergency plan. For example, in the first stage of emergency decision making, the feasibility and timeliness of the emergency plan should be given in priority.…”

“…In the third stage, the dynamic adjustment of emergency plan should be considered for all attributes. However, there is no justification for the alternatives and attributes in Wan [19] and Liu [22].…”

A Review of Digital Twin Applications in Civil and Infrastructure Emergency Management

“…The transmission and the sharing of information are essential to ensuring decision makers' ability to collaborate [188]. The modular design ideas and complex problem decomposition techniques were used to discuss emergency decision-making systems' information sharing and information interaction processes between different departments [189], and they were further developed into the synergy matrix and multiattribute decision theory to establish a dynamic and collaborative emergency decision-making approach [190].…”