A Multivariate Analysis of the Interplay between Energy Resources, Economic Growth, and Financial Stability. Evidence from Azerbaijan

Abstract

The aim of this research is to conduct an objective and predictive evaluation of Azerbaijan's economic growth from 1997 to 2022. Since Azerbaijan is a significant exporter and producer of energy resources, its economic growth is substantially influenced by the remarkable advancements in oil and gas extraction and production since the early 2000s. Methodologically, we have designed several models to ascertain the influence and impact of the following explanatory factors-oil reserves, natural gas reserves, net trade, current account balance, inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and carbon dioxide emissions - on the economic growth rate. The study utilised a combination of uni- and multi-factorial linear regression techniques, with accuracy and robustness testing conducted on all eight models. Research hypotheses were tested and a predictive analysis was implemented and evaluated over the studied period. Our findings demonstrate that the growth of Azerbaijan's economy is positively impacted by the dynamics and development of energy product trade, particularly in oil. As a result, GDP increased by an average of 2.50%. It is also confirmed that inflation and unemployment have a negative impact which unavoidably leads to instability and an economic downturn. In contrast, the robustness indicators (namely, RMSE, MAE and MAPE) could assess the predictive analysis of economic growth. The validated, low values further endorse the credibility of the eight models in accurately forecasting the economic growth rate throughout the studied period. The study disproves the existence of a positive correlation between GDP and the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions. However, it has been demonstrated that Azerbaijan is taking significant measures to achieve its environmental objectives. These measures include the implementation of taxation, a reduction in CO2 emissions by up to 55% by 2030, and a shift towards renewable energy sources. Our research aims to enhance the utilisation of renewable energy resources, increase the efficiency of the domestic energy infrastructure and implement measures to moderate high levels of unemployment and inflation, thus ensuring sustained economic growth in Azerbaijan.