A new approach for designing disease intervention strategies in metapopulation models

Knipl, Diána

doi:10.1080/17513758.2015.1107140

Cited by 17 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The target matrix K S is identified as [ K S ] ij = k ij if ( i , j ) ∈ S , and zero otherwise. The target reproduction number, R S is defined as R S = ρ ( K S ·( I − K + K S ) −1 ) provided that ρ ( K − K S ) < 1, where I is the identity matrix [ 35 ]. The last condition can be referred to as the condition for controllability, since if the spectral radius is greater than 1 then the disease cannot be eliminated by targeting only S (in such case, R S is not defined [ 36 ]).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Assessment of Epidemiologically Different Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Outbreaks in Madrid, Spain and Tolima, Colombia: An Estimation of the Reproduction Number via a Mathematical Model

2018

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Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the Leishmania parasite and transmitted by the Phlebotominae subfamily of sandflies, which infects humans and other mammals. Clinical manifestations of the disease include cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) with a majority (more than three-quarters) of worldwide cases being CL. There are a number of risk factors for CL, such as the presence of multiple reservoirs, the movement of individuals, inequality, and social determinants of health. However, studies related to the role of these factors in the dynamics of CL have been limited. In this work, we (i) develop and analyze a vector-borne epidemic model to study the dynamics of CL in two ecologically distinct CL-affected regions—Madrid, Spain and Tolima, Colombia; (ii) derived three different methods for the estimation of model parameters by reducing the dimension of the systems; (iii) estimated reproduction numbers for the 2010 outbreak in Madrid and the 2016 outbreak in Tolima; and (iv) compared the transmission potential of the two economically-different regions and provided different epidemiological metrics that can be derived (and used for evaluating an outbreak), once R0 is known and additional data are available. On average, Spain has reported only a few hundred CL cases annually, but in the course of the outbreak during 2009–2012, a much higher number of cases than expected were reported and that too in the single city of Madrid. Cases in humans were accompanied by sharp increase in infections among domestic dogs, the natural reservoir of CL. On the other hand, CL has reemerged in Colombia primarily during the last decade, because of the frequent movement of military personnel to domestic regions from forested areas, where they have increased exposure to vectors. In 2016, Tolima saw an unexpectedly high number of cases leading to two successive outbreaks. On comparing, we estimated reproduction number of the Madrid outbreak to be 3.1 (with range of 2.8–3.9), which was much higher than reproduction number estimates of the Tolima first outbreak 1.2 (with range of 1.1–1.3), and the estimate for the second outbreak in Tolima of 1.019 (with range of 1.018–1.021). This suggests that the epidemic outbreak in Madrid was much more severe than the Tolima outbreak, even though Madrid was economically better-off compared to Tolima. It indicates a potential relationship between urban development and increasing health disparities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Assessment of Epidemiologically Different Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Outbreaks in Madrid, Spain and Tolima, Colombia: An Estimation of the Reproduction Number via a Mathematical Model

2018

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“…Other types of reproduction numbers have also been defined, such as target and type reproduction numbers (van den Driessche, 2017). Knipl recently generalized the definition of next-generation matrices to define BRNs in a larger class of systems (Knipl, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Invasion reproductive numbers for periodic epidemic models

Mitchell

Kribs

2019

Infectious Disease Modelling

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There are many cases within epidemiology where infections compete to persist within a population. In studying models for such cases, one of the goals is to determine which infections can invade a population and persist when other infections are already resident within the population. Invasion reproductive numbers (IRN), which are tied to the stability of boundary endemic equilibria, can address this question. By reinterpreting resident infections epidemiologically, this study extends methods for finding IRNs to periodic systems, and presents some examples which illustrate the often complex computations required. Results identify conditions under which a simple time-average can be used to derive IRNs, and apply the methods to examine how seasonal fluctuations in influenza incidence facilitate the year-round persistence of bacterial respiratory infections.

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“…3 and 4 ) using such information. Therefore, the purpose of in silico simulation models as shown in (Table 4 ) for this research is to observe the seasonal typhoid incidents computationally because it is essential to predict the outcome of their trended outbreaks as reported by [ 59 ]. To control a successful strategy of a typical disease scenario (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence of current patterns and predictive trends of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi in Sudan

Elshayeb

Ahmed

Siddig

et al. 2017

Ann Clin Microbiol Antimicrob

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BackgroundEnteric fever has persistence of great impact in Sudanese public health especially during rainy season when the causative agent Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi possesses pan endemic patterns in most regions of Sudan - Khartoum.ObjectivesThe present study aims to assess the recent state of antibiotics susceptibility of Salmonella Typhi with special concern to multidrug resistance strains and predict the emergence of new resistant patterns and outbreaks.Methods Salmonella Typhi strains were isolated and identified according to the guidelines of the International Standardization Organization and the World Health Organization. The antibiotics susceptibilities were tested using the recommendations of the Clinical Laboratories Standards Institute. Predictions of emerging resistant bacteria patterns and outbreaks in Sudan were done using logistic regression, forecasting linear equations and in silico simulations models.ResultsA total of 124 antibiotics resistant Salmonella Typhi strains categorized in 12 average groups were isolated, different patterns of resistance statistically calculated by (y = ax − b). Minimum bactericidal concentration’s predication of resistance was given the exponential trend (y = n ex) and the predictive coefficient R2 > 0 < 1 are approximately alike. It was assumed that resistant bacteria occurred with a constant rate of antibiotic doses during the whole experimental period. Thus, the number of sensitive bacteria decreases at the same rate as resistant occur following term to the modified predictive model which solved computationally.ConclusionThis study assesses the prediction of multi-drug resistance among S. Typhi isolates by applying low cost materials and simple statistical methods suitable for the most frequently used antibiotics as typhoid empirical therapy. Therefore, bacterial surveillance systems should be implemented to present data on the aetiology and current antimicrobial drug resistance patterns of community-acquired agents causing outbreaks.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12941-017-0247-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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A new approach for designing disease intervention strategies in metapopulation models

Cited by 17 publications

References 18 publications

A Comparative Assessment of Epidemiologically Different Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Outbreaks in Madrid, Spain and Tolima, Colombia: An Estimation of the Reproduction Number via a Mathematical Model

A Comparative Assessment of Epidemiologically Different Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Outbreaks in Madrid, Spain and Tolima, Colombia: An Estimation of the Reproduction Number via a Mathematical Model

Invasion reproductive numbers for periodic epidemic models

Prevalence of current patterns and predictive trends of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi in Sudan

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