A New Approach to Probabilistic Modeling for Two Interconnected Systems

Abstract

Evaluating the benefits of interconnected systems is very important for both planning and operating power systems. Such benefits include lower production costs and a higher level of system reliability. Many papers have been written on the subject using the Probabilistic Modeling method. These papers can be roughly divided into two categories. The first category is based on the cumulant method which is prone to the inherent inaccuracies of series expansions. The second category is so-called the segmentation method which requires a great amount computation when being used in interconnected systems. This paper presents a new method of probabilistic modeling for interconnected systems. The method is based on the Equivalent Energy Function approach. To extend the EEF approach to interconnected systems its formulas are slightly altered in form. The proposed method rigorously treats probabilistic properties of residual unit capacities and tie line capacities, and thus accurately simulates the energy exchange processes between two interconnected systems. . The numerical examples given in the paper illustrate the high accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.