A new nomogram for predicting extraurothelial recurrence in patients with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma following radical nephroureterectomy

Abstract

PurposeWe sought to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting extra-urinary recurrence (EUR) following radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in patients with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).MethodsData from 556 UTUC patients post-RNU at the First Hospital of Jilin University were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were categorized into a training group (n=389) and a validation group (n=167). Variables significantly associated with prognosis were identified using univariate Cox regression and most minor absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis. These independent predictors were incorporated into the nomogram to estimate extra-urinary recurrence-free survival (EURFS). Validation of the nomogram involved ROC curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Patients were stratified into two risk categories based on their nomogram scores to compare EURFS using the Kaplan-Meier method.ResultsEight predictors were identified: T-stage, N-stage, tumor grade, local and nerve invasion, preoperative hemoglobin level, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and creatinine, all proving to be independent predictors of EUR. A nomogram was created based on these eight factors, and using the ROC, calibration curves, and DCA, good prediction results were shown in both the training and validation groups. The training and validation groups also showed reliable predictive performance. In particular, there was a significant difference in survival between the high-risk and low-risk groups (P<0.0001). We have also built a network calculator that calculates patient survival time. The URL is https://haowu24.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp.ConclusionA nomogram for predicting distant metastases in UTUC patients was successfully developed, and its accuracy, reliability, and clinical value were demonstrated. This new tool helps to improve the clinical management of UTUC cases.