A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

Ciarlo, James M.; Coppola, Erika; Fantini, Adriano; Giorgi, Filippo; Gao, Xuejie; Yao, Takeshi; Glazer, Russell; Alavez, José Abraham Torres; Sines, Taleena; Pichelli, Emanuela; Raffaele, Francesca; Das, Someshwar; Bukovsky, Melissa; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Im, Eun‐Soon; Nguyen-Xuan, Thanh; Teichmann, Claas; Remedio, Armelle Reca; Remke, Thomas; Bülow, Katharina; Weber, Torsten; Buntemeyer, Lars; Sieck, Kevin; Rechid, Diana; Jacob, Daniela

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05400-5

Cited by 49 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 49 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Figure 1). This result is consistent with recent studies that demonstrated the advantages of high-resolution simulations (Ciarlo et al, 2020;Qiu et al, 2020).…”

Section: Experimental Designsupporting

confidence: 93%

Near-term regional climate change over Bangladesh

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Bangladesh stands out as a climate change hot spot due to its unique geography, climate, high population density, and limited adaptation capacity. Mounting evidence suggests that the country is already suffering from the effects of climate change which may get worse without aggressive action. Here, we use an ensemble of high-resolution (10 km) regional climate model simulations to project near-term change in climate extremes, mainly heat waves and intense rainfall, for the period (2021–2050). Near-term climate projections represent a valuable input for designing sound adaptation policies. Our climate projections suggest that heatwaves will become more frequent and severe in Bangladesh under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). In particular, extremes of wet-bulb temperature (a temperature and humidity metric important in evaluating humid heat stress) in the western part of Bangladesh including Bogra, Ishurdi, and Jessore are likely to exceed the extreme danger threshold (according to U.S. National Weather Service criterion), which has rarely been observed in the current climate. The return periods of extreme heat waves are also significantly shortened across the country. In addition, country-averaged rainfall is projected to increase by about 6% during the summer months, with the largest increases (above 10%) in the eastern mountainous areas, such as Sylhet and Chittagong. Meanwhile, insignificant changes in extreme rainfall are simulated. Our results suggest that Bangladesh is particularly susceptible to climate extremes in the near future, in the form of extreme heat waves over the western part of the country.

show abstract

“…Figure 1). This result is consistent with recent studies that demonstrated the advantages of high-resolution simulations (Ciarlo et al, 2020;Qiu et al, 2020).…”

Section: Experimental Designsupporting

confidence: 93%

Near-term regional climate change over Bangladesh

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In contrast to the GCM simulations, the CORDEX-CORE ensemble provides simulations on higher spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for regional to local climate and impact assessments, as well as VIACS applications in the major inhabited regions of the world, while being at the same time consistent with the large scale AR5-GCM CCS. This is supported by Ciarlo` et al (2020), who compared simulated precipitation from the EURO-CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE ensembles to the precipitation from the respective driving GCMs and found an added value mainly in complex topographical areas, coastal areas, islands and tropical regions, especially for extremes. Nevertheless, in order to fill the presented knowledge gaps and to get a better understanding of the origins of regional features, we encourage further regional process studies using CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE and ideally additional even higher resolved regional climate simulations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 67%

“…For example, using CORDEX-CORE, it will now be possible to assess future climate (mean, extremes and hazards) worldwide at an unprecedented resolution of 0.22 • using an homogeneous, consistent ensemble, e.g., (Ciarlo et al 2020;Weber et al 2020). It also complements the ensemble of RCM simulations for regions with a small ensemble size (e.g., Central America (Cavazos et al 2020)).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25$$\,\mathrm {km}$$ km (0.22$$^{\circ }$$ ∘ ) versus 50$$\,\mathrm {km}$$ km (0.44$$^{\circ }$$ ∘ )) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

show abstract

“…Climate models are the only way to perform climate projections and study renewable energy resources in the future. In particular, regional climate models, which attain fine horizontal resolution at the expense of a smaller domain than that from global climate models, are the most suitable tool for regional purposes and particularly for islands [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Wind and Photovoltaic Energy Resources in the Canary Islands and Adjacent Regions

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The progressive energy transition to systems with higher shares of renewable energy is particularly important in islands regions, which are largely dependent on energy imports. In this context, to assess the impact of climate change on renewable energy resources during the 21st century is crucial for polycimakers and stakeholders. In this work, we provide an overview of wind and photovoltaic (PV) resources, its variability and complementarity between them, as well as their future changes, in the Canary Islands and surrounding areas. Variability is assessed through the analysis of energy droughts (low-productivity periods). In addition, a sensitivity test is performed to find the optimal combination of PV (photovoltaic) and wind that reduce energy droughts and the persistence of that conditions at a local scale. A set of climate simulations from the MENA-CORDEX runs are used, in present and future climate (2046–2065, 2081–2100) for two different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5). Results show different changes in wind productivity depending on the scenario: a decrease in RCP2.6 and an increase in the RCP8.5. PV experienced a subtle decrease, with some exceptions. Changes in variability are small and the complementarity test shows that high shares of PV energy (above 50%) reduce both, energy droughts and the persistence of drought conditions.

show abstract

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

Cited by 49 publications

References 49 publications

Near-term regional climate change over Bangladesh

Near-term regional climate change over Bangladesh

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Impact of Climate Change on Wind and Photovoltaic Energy Resources in the Canary Islands and Adjacent Regions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About