A new toolkit for land value analysis and scenario planning

Abstract

In the digital era of big data, data analytics and smart cities, a new generation of planning support systems is emerging. The Rapid Analytics Interactive Scenario Explorer is a novel planning support system developed to help planners and policy-makers determine the likely land value uplift associated with the provision of new city infrastructure. The Rapid Analytics Interactive Scenario Explorer toolkit was developed following a user-centred research approach including iterative design, prototyping and evaluation. Tool development was informed by user inputs obtained through a series of co-design workshops with two end-user groups: land valuers and urban planners. The paper outlines the underlying technical architecture of the toolkit, which has the ability to perform rapid calculations and visualise the results, for the end-users, through an online mapping interface. The toolkit incorporates an ensemble of hedonic pricing models to calculate and visualise value uplift and so enable the user to explore what if? scenarios. The toolkit has been validated through an iterative case study approach. Use cases were related to two policy areas: property and land valuation processes (for land taxation purposes) and value uplift scenarios (for value capture purposes). The cases tested were in Western Sydney, Australia. The paper reports on the results of the ordinary least square linear regressions – used to explore the impacts of hedonic attributes on property value at the global level – and geographically weighted regressions – developed to provide local estimates and explore the varying spatial relationships between attributes and house price across the study area. Building upon the hedonic modelling, the paper also reports the value uplift functionality of the Rapid Analytics Interactive Scenario Explorer toolkit that enables users to drag and drop new train stations and rapidly calculate expected property prices under a range of future transport scenarios. The Rapid Analytics Interactive Scenario Explorer toolkit is believed to be the first of its kind to provide this specific functionality. As it is problem and policy specific, it can be considered an example of the next generation of data-driven planning support system.

What does urban informatics add to planning support technology?

“…The most often mentioned term in the "value-added" discussion (from urban informatics to planning support technology) is "participation"-participation of both planners in the modeling processes (Page et al, 2020(Page et al, : 1508 or modelers in the planning processes (Jiang et al, 2020(Jiang et al, : 1343Pettit et al, 2020Pettit et al, : 1490Yang et al, 2020Yang et al, : 1474. Urban informatics and smart city technologies can contribute to improved participatory planning infrastructure with better communication technologies and faster prototyping of PSS models that allow the automation of model updates (in real time) during participatory deliberation (Cai et al, 2020(Cai et al, : 1380.…”

“…It supplements decades of PSS literature presenting novel approaches to core model development (Basu andFerreira, 2020: 1397;Jia et al, 2020Jia et al, : 1418 with an increasing focus on the integration of the planning process and the applications of PSS technologies (Jiang et al, 2020(Jiang et al, : 1343Page et al, 2020Page et al, : 1508. User interface developments are also presented (Pettit et al, 2020(Pettit et al, : 1490Yang et al, 2020Yang et al, : 1474 as are urban analytics that utilize recently available big data sets (Pan et al, : 1456Yang, 2020Yang, : 1440. These additions help demonstrate new opportunities for the integration of planning support research, urban informatics, and smart cities.…”

“…From the papers in this issue, the role of PSS interfaces in revealing the "value added" by urban informatics is to: (a) communicate complex models and data to users (Pan et al, : 1456Pettit et al, 2020Pettit et al, : 1490Yang et al, 2020Yang et al, : 1474; (b) prototype models to generic processes that can be run by any user (Pettit et al, 2020(Pettit et al, : 1490Yang et al, 2020Yang et al, : 1474; and (c) solicit contextual feedback or inputs from users to improve the analysis (Pan et al, : 1456Yang et al, 2020Yang et al, : 1474. We expect further use-based tests on the design features of these interfaces to examine whether they have adequate user-friendliness to realize these claimed benefits.…”

“…The aim of their work is to make an open source PSS, "more easily useable for local planners, and thereby facilitate its adoption by planning authorities" making it "possible to integrate scientific knowledge, policy and stakeholder engagement in the complex process of planning for sustainable urban development". Pettit et al (2020Pettit et al ( : 1490) investigated a use case in Western Sydney, Australia to determine, "whether a rapid analytic scenario planning approach can be encapsulated in a tool that supports data-driven planning and decisionmaking". The main purpose of the work is to "support government land valuers in understanding changes in land and property dynamics" and to "support urban planners and policy-makers in exploring the potential value uplift from new public transport infrastructure".…”

“…Yang et al (2020Yang et al ( : 1474 developed a web-based visualization platform for urban design-Plugs-web-which can replicate their modeling process and also facilitates visual communication and collaboration between PSS developers, stakeholders and users. The RAISE tool developed by Pettit et al (2020Pettit et al ( : 1490 provide users with a deliberate access to complex models and the ability to create and explore a range of 'what-if' scenarios.…”