Conclusion This study indicates that IL-10 promoter polymorphism variants, smoking, and alcohol consumption increase the risk of recurrence and canceration in vocal leukoplakia. Objective This prospective, clinical trial was performed to evaluate the association of interleukin (IL)-10 promoter polymorphism variants and canceration and recurrence rates in vocal leukoplakia (a pre-cancerous laryngeal carcinoma lesion) over a 2-year period. Participants and method Sixty-one post-operative patients with vocal leukoplakia were enrolled in this prospective, observational study and genotyped for the IL-10 promoter gene (IL-10-1082 A/G, -819 T/C and -592 A/C) using pyrosequencing, and responded to a 2-year follow-up survey. Recurrence and canceration rates were used to evaluate the association between the genotype variants and the clinical outcome. Results There was an increased canceration rate in the variant genotype group compared to that in the normal genotype group in the 2-year follow-up period (18.4% vs 0%, p-value = 0.038). Compared with the non-smoker group, the smoker group had a higher recurrence rate of vocal leukoplakia (29.3% vs 5%, p-value =0.044). Likewise, the recurrence rate in the alcohol consumption group was also higher (30.6% vs 8%, p-value =0.034). The percentage of cancerization in the alcohol consumption group was significantly higher than that in the non-alcohol consumption group (19.4% vs 0%, p-value =0.035).