A Novel Approach for Modeling and Evaluating Road Operational Resilience Based on Pressure-State-Response Theory and Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Abstract

Urban roads face significant challenges from the unpredictable and destructive characteristics of natural or man-made disasters, emphasizing the importance of modeling and evaluating their resilience for emergency management. Resilience is the ability to recover from disruptions and is influenced by factors such as human behavior, road conditions, and the environment. However, current approaches to measuring resilience primarily focus on the functional attributes of road facilities, neglecting the vital feedback effects that occur during disasters. This study aims to model and evaluate road resilience under dynamic and uncertain emergency event scenarios. A new definition of road operational resilience is proposed based on the pressure-state-response theory, and the interaction mechanism between multidimensional factors and the stage characteristics of resilience is analyzed. A method for measuring road operational resilience using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) is proposed, and a hierarchical DBN structure is constructed based on domain knowledge to describe the influence relationship between resilience elements. The Best Worst method (BWM) and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory are used to determine the resilience status of network nodes in DBN parameter learning. A road operational resilience cube is constructed to visually integrate multidimensional and dynamic road resilience measurement results obtained from DBNs. The method proposed in this paper is applied to measure the operational resilience of roads during emergencies on the Shanghai expressway, achieving a 92.19% accuracy rate in predicting resilient nodes. Sensitivity analysis identifies scattered objects, casualties, and the availability of rescue resources as key factors affecting the rapidity of response disposal in road operations. These findings help managers better understand road resilience during emergencies and make informed decisions.