A Novel Logistic Model for Predicting Risk Factors and Contribution of Cerebral Small Vessel Disease

Abstract

Background: Cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) results in pathological alterations in the small arteries or veins of the brain, thereby significantly impairing brain functionality. This study aimed to examine the causative factors of small vessel disease and ultimately determined the proportion of each risk factor for CSVD by constructing a multivariate model based on stepwise regression. Methods: A total of 164 hospitalized patients were involved in this study. The study period was from January 2022 to March 2023.The patients were analyzed for the presence of CSVD by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The presence of CSVD in patients was determined by magnetic resonance imaging, and history, coagulation indices, renal function related to CSVD, and serum biochemistry and Hcy results were analyzed. Results: 164 patients were included in the safety analysis set, 73 ( 44.5% ) cases with CSVD and 91 ( 55.5% ) cases with no. of patients, and the median age of the patients was 66 ( 49 - 86 ) years.. The results of multivariate logistic model showed that yes of hypertension ( OR = 10.94%, 95% CI: 3.80% ~ 35.57%, P ＜0.001 ), HbA1c ( OR = 3.05%, 95% CI: 1.54% ~ 7.51%, P = 0.005 ), HCY ( OR = 1.45%, 95% CI: 1.22% ~ 1.82%, P ＜ 0.001 ), CRP ( OR = 2.21%, 95% CI: 1.25% ~ 4.10%, P = 0.008 ), TG ( OR = 3.80%, 95% CI: 1.62% ~ 10.00%, P = 0.004 ), and TC ( OR = 1.90%, 95% CI: 1.17% ~ 3.25%, P = 0.013 ) were risk factors for CSVD morbidity. The marginal R-squared ( R 2 M ) was 0.467. Among all the determinants, the weight of HCY ( 60.60% ) was maximum, followed by HbA1c ( 27.84% ).The quasi-curves plotted by using bootstrap method (999 times) showed a good agreement between the predictive model and the actual observations. Conclusion: Hypertension, HbA1c, HCY, CRP, TG and TC were risk factors for CSVD morbidity, and controlling the above indicators within a reasonable range will help to reduce the incidence of CSVD.