A Novel Nomogram for Identifying the Patients at Risk for Rapid Progression of Advanced Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer

Abstract

The goal of this study was to assess the prognostic impact of the lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) in advanced prostate cancer (PCa) patients before progression to castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Methods: A retrospective analysis of the follow-up data for 152 CRPC patients was performed. Severe LUTS symptom was defined as an International Prostate Symptoms Score (IPSS) ≥20 at baseline. Cox regression analysis was conducted to assess CRPC prognostic factors. Nomogram model was created and assessed using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analyses (DCA). Results: The median CRPC free survival of patients with severe LUTS was 20.5 months, significantly longer than that (7.5 months) of less symptomatic patients. Furthermore, severe LUTS, the hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet (HALP) score, and Gleason sum were determined to be independent prognostic markers and combined to establish a nomogram, which performed well in the customized prediction of CRPC progression at 6th, 12th, 18th and 24th month. The C-index (0.794 and 0.816 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively), calibration curve, and ROC curve all validated the prediction accuracy. DCA curve showed that it could be effective in helping doctors make judgments. The Nomogram-related risk score separated the patients into two groups with notable progression differences. Conclusion:Severe LUTS was significantly associated with decreased risk for rapid progression to CRPC. The developed nomogram could help identify patients who are at a high risk of rapid CRPC progression and provide tailored follow-up and therapeutic advice.