A novel SEIR-e model for disease transmission and pathogen exposure

Abstract

In this study, we couple compartment models for indoor air quality and disease transmission to develop a novel SEIR-e model for disease transmission and pathogen exposure. In doing so, we gain insight into the contribution of people-people and people-pathogen interactions to the spread of transmissible diseases. A general modelling framework is used to assess the risk of infection in indoor environments due to people-pathogen interactions via inhalation of viral airborne aerosols, and contact with contaminated surfaces. We couple the indoor environment model with a standard disease transmission model to investigate how both people-people and people-pathogen interactions result in disease transmission. The coupled model is referred to as the SEIR-e model. To demonstrate the applicability of the SEIR-e model and the novel insights it can provide into different exposure pathways, parameter values which describe exposure due to people-people and people-pathogen interactions are inferred using Bayesian techniques and case data relating to the 2020 outbreak of COVID-19 in Victoria (Australia).