A Pivotal Restructuring of Modeling the Control of COVID-19 During and After Massive Vaccinations for the Next Few Years

Abstract

This paper presents a pivotal restructuring of modeling the control of COVID-19 even when massive vaccination is in progress. A new closed loop mathematical model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Mathematical details of the stabilization and robustness are included. A new engineered closed loop model is designed to control the spread of COVID-19 or its variants—that is, one input directly increases the time-rate of the compartment of population free of virus, and the other input directly changes the time-rate of the susceptible compartment of population. Both inputs have collateral opposite influences on the time-rate of the infected compartment of population. The loop is closed around the new input-output model and designed so that the outputs reach the desired asymptotes. New surges of disease spread are not possible in appropriately designed stable closed loop models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.