A postsurgical prognostic nomogram for patients with lymph node positive rectosigmoid junction adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Objective The definition of rectosigmoid junction (RSJ) is still in debate. The treatment and prognosis of patients with rectosigmoid junction cancer (RSJC) and positive lymph nodes (PLN-RSJCs) are mostly based on the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Our study aims to assist clinicians in creating a more intuitive and accurate nomogram model for PLN-RSJCs for the prediction of patient overall survival (OS) after surgery. Methods Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we extracted 3384 patients with PLN-RSJCs and randomly divided them into development (n = 2344) and validation (n = 1004) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Using univariate and multivariate COX regression analysis, we identified independent risk factors associated with OS in PLN-RSJCs in the development cohort, which were further used to establish a nomogram model. To verify the accuracy of the model, the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and an internal validation cohort have been employed. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical applicability and benefits of the generated model. Survival curves of the low- and high-risk groups were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method together with the log-rank test. Results Age, marital, chemotherapy, AJCC stage, T and N stage of TNM system, tumor size, and regional lymph nodes were selected as independent risk factors and included in the nomogram model. The C-index of this nomogram in the development (0.751;0.737–0.765) and validation cohorts (0.750;0.764–0.736) were more significant than that of the AJCC 7th staging system (0.681; 0.665–0.697). The ROC curve with the calculated area under the curve (AUC) in the development cohort was 0.845,0.808 and 0.800 for 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS, AUC in the validation cohort was 0.815,0.833 and 0.814 for 1-year, 3-year and 5-year, respectively. The calibration plots of both cohorts for 1-year,3-year and 5-year OS all demonstrated good agreement between actual clinical observations and predicted outcomes. In the development cohort, the DCA showed that the nomogram prediction model is more advantageous for clinical application than the AJCC 7th staging system. Kaplan–Meier curves in the low and high groups showed significant difference in patient OS. Conclusions We established an accurate nomogram model for PLN-RSJCs, intended to support clinicians in the treatment and follow-up of patients.