A Potential Outcome Approach to Dynamic Programme Evaluation: Nonparametric Identification

Abstract

Recent examples are papers by Imbens and Angrist (1994) for the identifying power of instrumental variables, Heckman and Vytlacil (2001b) and Vytlacil (1999) for nonparametric selection models, and by Rubin (1977) and Lechner (2001b) for the conditional independence assumption. Lemma 1-II (connection of treatment effects defined for different lengths of treatments)

Dynamic treatment effect analysis of TV effects on child cognitive development

“…Although the mean effect on some treated group may be also of interest, there are problems in identifying the effect on the treated unless essentially the treated is only for the first period; this is discussed in detail by Lechner and Miquel (2001). In this paper, we take the position that TV effect is of interest to the entire population, not just to some subpopulation.…”

Improving DWP Assessment of the Relative Costs and Benefits of Employment Programmes

“…In the theoretical literature, the evaluation of repeated treatments from observational data distinguishes the initial effects of a first participation from incremental effects of a second participation (see Lechner and Miquel, 2002). Such a framework requires separate econometric modelling of the decision to participate at different points in time while a benefit spell is ongoing, i.e.…”

“…A plausible approach for evaluation of the incremental effects of repeated participation has been discussed theoretically by Lechner and Miquel (2002) modelling the decision to participate in the second iteration separately from the decision to participate a first time. The corresponding evaluation framework mirrors such a stepwise decision for participation in a two-stage procedure of the established multiple treatment approach taking into account that participation in the second treatment depends on the outcome of a first treatment.…”

“…A repeated participation could be because of the mandatory nature of the programme (like the New Deals) or because of individuals opting in to participate in some activity twice. As with the evaluation of multiple programme alternatives, a research design for the evaluation of incremental programme effects exist (see Lechner and Miquel, 2002), but has rarely been applied to programme evaluations.…”

“…While all these studies applied a framework evaluating mutually exclusive alternative treatments for particular entry cohorts, there are few papers using Lechner and Miquel's (2002) identification strategy of effects of reiterated treatments. While there was strong evidence for repeated participation in the secondary evaluation of the NDLP (Knight et al, 2006), so far there has not been a consistent evaluation of a second or further participation in the same programme except for the Austrian analysis by Lechner and Wieler (2007) and Bergeman et al (2000).…”