A Prediction Model for Sepsis in Infected Patients: Early Assessment of Sepsis Engagement

Abstract

Purpose To evaluate significant risk variables for sepsis incidence and develop a predictive model for rapid screening and diagnosis of sepsis in patients from the emergency department (ED). Methods Sepsis-related risk variables were screened based on the PIRO (Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction) system. Training (n = 1272) and external validation (n = 568) datasets were collected from Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH) and Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital (BTCH), respectively. Variables were collected at the time of admission. Sepsis incidences were determined within 72 hrs post ED admissions. A predictive model, Early Assessment of Sepsis Engagement (EASE), was developed, and an EASE-based nomogram was generated for clinical applications. The predictive ability of EASE was evaluated and compared to the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) scoring system. In addition, internal and external validations were performed. Results A total of 48 characteristics were identified. The EASE model, which consists of alcohol consumption, lung infection, temperature, respiration rate, heart rate, BUN, and WBC, had an excellent predictive performance. The EASE-based nomogram showed a significantly higher area under curve (AUC) value of 86.5% (95% CI 84.2%-88.8%) compared to the AUC value of 78.2% for the NEWS scoring system. The AUC of EASE in the external validation dataset was 72.2% (95% CI 66.6%-77.7%). Both calibration curves of EASE in training and external validation datasets were close to the ideal model and were well-calibrated. Conclusion The EASE model can predict and screen ED-admitted patients with sepsis. It demonstrated superior diagnostic performance and clinical application promise by external validation and in-parallel comparison with the NEWS scoring system.