A probabilistic approach for earthquake hazard assessment of the Province of Eskişehir, Turkey

Abstract

Abstract. The city of Eskişehir in inner-western Turkey has experienced a destructive earthquake with M s =6.4 in 1956 in addition to many events with magnitudes greater than 5. It is located in a wide basin having young sedimentary units and thick alluvium soils which also include liquefiable sand materials. There is also an active fault passing beneath the city center and the groundwater level is very close to the ground surface. Approximately 600 thousand people are living in the province of Eskişehir. Therefore, the city and its vicinity have a high risk, when earthquake hazard is considered. This paper summarizes the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which was performed for the province of Eskişehir and introduces seismic hazard maps produced by considering earthquakes with magnitude M s ≥4.0 occurred during the last 100-years and a seismic model composed of four seismic sources. The results of PSHA show that the average peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the city center is 0.40 g for 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, for rock site. The seismic hazard maps were obtained by means of a program of Geographic Information System.

Deterministic approach to the seismic hazard of dam sites in Kızılırmak basin, Turkey

“…DSHA and PSHA have been performed by different researchers in specific sites according to their project goals and importance (Chandler et al 2001;Fat-Helbary and Tealb 2002;Al-Homoud 2003;Ardeleanu et al 2005;Simeonova et al 2006;Orhan et al 2007;Nakajima et al 2007;Tosun and Seyrek 2006;Tosun et al 2007;Tosun and Seyrek 2009;Seyrek et al 2009). …”

The relationship between seismic quality factor and peak ground acceleration, a case study: M=4.3, 17.01.2015 Eskisehir Earthquake

“…The parameters of the stations were given in Table 1. Şaroğlu et al, 1992, Orhan et. al., 2007, Emre et al, 2013, Seyitoğlu et.…”

Güncel veriler ve olasılıksal sismik tehlike analizi kullanarak Eskişehir için sismik tehlike haritası ve ivme eğrileri elde edilmesi

“…[2] tarafından OSTA yöntemi ile Eskişehir şehir merkezinin 475 yıl yineleme süresi için en büyük yer ivmesi 0,26g olarak hesaplanmış, deterministik yöntem kullanarak sismik tehlike analiz yapan Orhan vd. [3], aynı ivmeyi 0,40g olarak hesaplamıştır. Geçmişte yapılan çalışmalar her ne kadar detaylı olursa olsun, bu çalışmaların, geçen zamana bağlı olarak eldeki verilerin artması, modelleme ve analiz kabiliyetimizin gelişmesi ve sismik olayları daha iyi anlamamız sayesinde, yeniden düzenlenip zamana uygun hale getirilmesi gerekmektedir.…”