A probabilistic approach for the levelized cost of energy of floating offshore wind farms

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of floating offshore wind farms from a probabilistic point of view. Understanding and addressing the uncertainty associated with the main parameters that influence the wind energy generated by a wind farm during its lifetime is crucial for the economic evaluation of offshore wind energy in the broader energy landscape. The methodology for probabilistic assessment of LCOE is introduced, and the uncertainty in input parameters are discussed. In a base case study, an assumed Floating Offshore Wind Farm (FOWT) consisting of 250 5-MW wind turbines is considered. The use of bias and randomness in key random variables is discussed and studied in detail. Results indicate that LCOE estimates of 15 EURc/kWh for offshore wind turbines are achievable with reasonable confidence, while estimates of 5 EURc/kWh require careful consideration of uncertainty in the wind farm’s parameters. The feasibility analysis showed that techno-economic parameters are more influenced by wind characteristics and efficient use of wind turbines than by the cost of the wind farm. This paper provides general guidance on how to carry out early-stage techno-economic analysis of FOWFs.