A Probabilistic Approach to Seismic Hazard in Metropolitan France

Marin, Sylvie; Avouac, Jean Philippe; Nicolas, M.; Schlupp, Antoine

doi:10.1785/0120030232

Cited by 71 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…During the last decades, several researches have aimed to understand the present day stress state of the Pyrenees based on the instrumental seismicity (Souriau and Pauchet, 1998;Souriau et al, 2001;De Vicente et al, 2008;Olaiz et al, 2009;Chevrot et al, 2011, among others) and/or on the definition of the seismotectonic regions with seismic hazard purposes (Olivera et al, 1986;Souriau and Pauchet, 1998;Souriau et al, 2001;Marin et al, 2004;Ruiz et al, 2006a;Secanell et al, 2008;García-Mayordomo and Insua-Arévalo, 2011).…”

Section: The Stress State Of the Chain: A Source Of Debatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dominique et al, 1998;Marin et al, 2004;Secanell et al, 2008;García-Mayordomo and Insua-Arévalo, 2011) are based on the seismicity distribution and on seismotectonic domains, without the consideration of the traces of the active faults determined by paleoseismological and/or geomorphological studies. Furthermore, no geodynamical model has been proposed so far to jointly explain the activity of the active faults of the range.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Active Tectonics of the Pyrenees: A review

Lacan

Ortuño

2012

Journal of Iberian Geology

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The Pyrenees have experienced at least seven earthquakes with magnitude M > 5 in the last 400 years. During the last decades, several seismotectonic, neotectonic and paleoseismological studies have focused on identifying the main active structures of the areas experiencing damaging earthquakes. In spite of these studies, the regional stress regime is still discussed and there is no unequivocal seismotectonic model at the scale of the range. In this paper, we first present a revision of the former works on active faults in the Pyrenees, and then we discuss the main results in terms of their neotectonic setting. We have distinguished five neotectonic regions according to their seismicity, faulting style and morphologic evolution: the westernmost Pyrenees, the North Western Pyrenean zone, the Foreland basins, the Lower Thrust Sheets Domain and the Eastern Pyrenees. This review lead us to differentiate the range into two major domains: the High Chain, where active faults are controlled by vertical maximum stresses, and the Low Chain, where horizontal maximum stresses of variable orientation seem to be dominant. We propose that these different stress domains are related to the isostatic rebound in response to either the difference in crustal thickness and/or the distribution of the Plio-Quaternary erosion.

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Section: The Stress State Of the Chain: A Source Of Debatementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Active Tectonics of the Pyrenees: A review

Lacan

Ortuño

2012

Journal of Iberian Geology

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“…However, in practice, this choice is often related to the behaviour of empirical strong-motion datasets. In the context of seismic hazard analysis, the truncation issue has been discussed by a number of authors (Zemell, 1984;Bernreuter et al, 1989;Anderson and Brune, 1999;Abrahamson, 2000a;Romeo and Prestininzi, 2000), but there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt, with proposals ranging from 1σ (e.g., Marin et al, 2004) to 4σ (e.g., Bernreuter et al, 1989). To a certain extent, differences between the proposed values could be linked to the coupling between σ and ε, particularly in the Bernreuter et al (1989) study where the experts were asked to evaluate both σ and ε max .…”

Section: Empirical Strong-motion Datasets and The Truncation Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

2007

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Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the United States and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε max ) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε max . Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε max value impractical.

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“…The value of ε max ranging from 2 to 4 has often been employed in probabilistic seismic hazard estimations (e.g., Marin et al, 2004). However, truncation at ε max < 3 has been suggested to be inappropriate (e.g., Bommer and Abrahamson, 2006).…”

Section: Psha Computational Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake scenario in West Bengal with emphasis on seismic hazard microzonation of the city of Kolkata, India

Nath

Adhikari

Maiti

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Seismic microzonation is a process of estimating site-specific effects due to an earthquake on urban centers for its disaster mitigation and management. The state of West Bengal, located in the western foreland of the AssamArakan Orogenic Belt, the Himalayan foothills and Surma Valley, has been struck by several devastating earthquakes in the past, indicating the need for a seismotectonic review of the province, especially in light of probable seismic threat to its capital city of Kolkata, which is a major industrial and commercial hub in the eastern and northeastern region of India. A synoptic probabilistic seismic hazard model of Kolkata is initially generated at engineering bedrock (V 30 s ∼ 760 m s −1 ) considering 33 polygonal seismogenic sources at two hypocentral depth ranges, 0-25 and 25-70 km; 158 tectonic sources; appropriate seismicity modeling; 14 ground motion prediction equations for three seismotectonic provinces, viz. the east-central Himalaya, the Bengal Basin and Northeast India selected through suitability testing; and appropriate weighting in a logic tree framework. Site classification of Kolkata performed following in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations places the city in D1, D2, D3 and E classes. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at a surface-consistent level -i.e., the local seismic hazard related to site amplification performed by propagating the bedrock ground motion with 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years through a 1-D sediment column using an equivalent linear analysis -predicts a peak ground acceleration (PGA) range from 0.176 to 0.253 g in the city. A deterministic liquefaction scenario in terms of spatial distribution of liquefaction potential index corresponding to surface PGA distribution places 50 % of the city in the possible liquefiable zone. A multicriteria seismic hazard microzonation framework is proposed for judicious integration of multiple themes, namely PGA at the surface, liquefaction potential index, NEHRP soil site class, sediment class, geomorphology and ground water table in a fuzzy protocol in the geographical information system by adopting an analytical hierarchal process. The resulting high-resolution surface consistent hazard, liquefaction and microzonation maps are expected to play vital roles in earthquake-related disaster mitigation and management of the city of Kolkata.

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A Probabilistic Approach to Seismic Hazard in Metropolitan France

Cited by 71 publications

References 38 publications

Active Tectonics of the Pyrenees: A review

Active Tectonics of the Pyrenees: A review

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Earthquake scenario in West Bengal with emphasis on seismic hazard microzonation of the city of Kolkata, India

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