A prospective cost–benefit analysis for nylon 4N6FLOQSwabs®: example of the process and potential benefits

Abstract

Laboratories and their criminal justice systems are confronted with challenges for implementing new technologies, practices, and policies even when there appears to be demonstrative benefits to operational performance. Impacting decisions are the often higher costs associated with, for example, new technologies, limited current budgets, and making hard decisions on what to sacrifice to take on the seemingly better approach. A prospective cost–benefit analysis (CBA) could help an agency better formulate its strategies and plans and more importantly delineate how a relatively small increase to take on, for example, a new technology can have large impact on the system (e.g., the agency, other agencies, victims and families, and taxpayers). To demonstrate the process and potential value a CBA was performed on the use of an alternate and more expensive swab with reported better DNA yield and being certified human DNA free (i.e., nylon 4N6FLOQSwabs®), versus the traditional less costly swab (i.e., cotton swab). Assumptions are described, potential underestimates and overestimates noted, different values applied (for low and modest to high), and potential benefits (monetary and qualitative) presented. The overall outcome is that the cost of using the more expensive technology pales compared with the potential tangible and intangible benefits. This approach could be a guide for laboratories (and associated criminal justice systems) worldwide to support increased funding, although the costs and benefits may vary locally and for different technologies, practices, and policies. With well-developed CBAs, goals of providing the best services to support the criminal justice system and society can be attained.

A cost–benefit analysis for use of large SNP panels and high throughput typing for forensic investigative genetic genealogy

“…The increased upload and hit rates also can be used to predict annual performance. Using the estimate from Budowle et al [ 49 ], 114,426 forensic profiles are uploaded per year (i.e., 1,144,255 forensic profiles divided by 10 years; October 2021 data). This estimate may not be entirely accurate as CODIS has been in existence for more than two decades; however, the upload rate has been much higher over the last decade or so.…”

“…Therefore, a national level cost was entertained to provide insight into investment costs. Using the casework requests of 330,000 per year [ 58 ] and assuming 5 samples per request [ 49 ], there would be about 1,665,000 samples analyzed annually in the USA. This number of requests may be low, so one can also consider 400,000 requests with 5 samples per case for a total of approximately 2,000,000 samples analyzed annually.…”

“…As previously reported [ 49 ], the costs to society due to crime are likely low estimates because the number of cases reported is low [ 60 , 92 , 93 ]. For example, it is estimated that only 5–25% of victims report sexual assault.…”

“…Higher hit rates also may impact wrongful convictions and wrongful arrests as searching the FIGG database could produce leads to other more likely suspects. As previously pointed out [ 49 ], tangible and intangible costs of wrongful convictions and wrongful arrests on a per case basis may be commensurate or greater than those of rape and murder, especially when considering the social stigma, loss of freedom, loss of productivity, pain and suffering, government liabilities, and subsequent settlements.…”

“…Budowle et al [ 49 , 50 ] recently showed using a CBA model (both with static bounding values and with a Monte Carlo simulation) that replacing lower performing cotton swabs with higher performing, higher cost nylon 4N6FLOQSwabs® (COPAN Italia, SpA) is justifiable and a highly beneficial investment. A similar CBA can be performed for assessing NGS and FIGG.…”