A Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Likelihood of Introduction of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Strain H5N1 into U.S. Hunter Retriever Dogs

Abstract

SUMMARY Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain H5N1 has received great attention with regard to its potential spread to North America. This quantitative risk assessment, which is primarily based on wild bird carriage of HPAI from East Asia to Alaska, was conducted to assess the likelihood of a hunter retriever dog becoming infected after harvesting an infected waterfowl during the Alaskan hunting season. Using Monte Carlo Simulation with @Risk software, the expected probability of a hunter retriever dog becoming infected is 2.3 × 10−8. This model can serve as a tool for decision makers in assessing the risk of HPAI strain H5N1 introduction into Alaska’s hunter retriever dogs.

An Epidemiological Perspective on Labor Trafficking

“…An epidemiologic problem oriented approach (EPOA) provides a scientific framework for the collection, organization, and analysis of epidemiological information which facilitates the development of systematic and structured knowledge bases. Used in the field of public health as a tool to inform decision making (Lane et al, 2010), the EPOA enables the creation of decision support models which can be used to assess causal processes and outcomes. Developing such a structure is pertinent to the enhanced comprehension of labor trafficking dynamics by predicting the susceptibility of a person to trafficking, understanding the relationship between victims and traffickers, and evaluating the impact of responses.…”

“…The EPOA methodology has been used in the study of infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS (Nganwa et al, 2010;Tameru et al, 2012), African trypanosomiasis (Habtemariam, 1989), highly pathogenic avian influenza (Lane et al, 2010), and bovine tuberculosis (Dibaba & Daborn, 2019). Using the knowledge base generated through an EPOA, researchers have developed dynamic models for computational epidemiologic case studies (Habtemariam, 1989;Nganwa et al, 2010), identified infection risk in epidemics (Lane et al, 2010), conducted quantitative risk assessments (Tameru et al, 2012), and better described disease transmission dynamics (Dibaba & Daborn, 2019). To apply the EPOA in the context of labor trafficking we build upon our conceptual framing laid out earlier and draw further comparisons between elements of labor trafficking and disease.…”