A reliable probabilistic risk-based decision-making method: Bayesian Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (B-TOPSIS)

A novel failure analysis method named D‐vine copula Bayesian Network is proposed, aimed to extract fault correlation information from various condition monitoring channels of floating offshore wind turbine components, quantify risk probability and consequence, and obtain risk priority of components considering condition correlation. First, a copula Bayesian model is established based on the Bayesian network and D‐vine copula theory. Then, a risk consequence calculation method considering relative loss is developed. Finally, critical failure items are identified by a risk matrix. The proposed technique is expected to: (i) Release the limitation that parent nodes with condition monitoring input are processed as independent in Bayesian analysis. (ii) Provide an alternative way for presenting relationships between nodes instead of conditional probability tables. (iii) Simplify the calculation of high‐dimensional copula. This study screened out high‐risk level components of floating offshore wind turbines, and operation recommendations avoiding potential failure risk are put forward. The comparative results demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of the proposed method.

Section: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To better integrate the preferences obtained from a group of decision‐makers in a decision‐making problem, Li et al 39 . presented Bayesian‐TOPSIS which utilized integrated probabilistic models with decision‐making tools to propose multi‐criteria decision‐making tools.…”

Section: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

Failure analysis of floating offshore wind turbines considering working condition correlations

Sun

Xu²,

et al. 2023

“…Generally, multi‐source information fusion is a program that integrates multi‐source heterogeneous information to support effective decision‐making and applies both in engineering and social networks. Fuzzy logic‐based methods, 34 weight‐based methods, 35 artificial intelligence‐based methods, 36 statistic‐based methods, 37 and mixed methods 38 are typical tools of multi‐source information fusion. The method above is selected and applied to solve specific problems based on the properties of methods and requirements of practical problems.…”

Section: The Multi‐source Information Fusion‐based Safety Assessment ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi‐source information fusion model for safety assessment of bamboo‐integrated products

Ding

Kong

et al. 2023

Self Cite

A multi-source information fusion model is proposed to assess the safety and reliability of bamboo-integrated products, which, unlike metal materials, hold different properties in longitudinal and transverse surfaces/directions. First, a weight factor is proposed to estimate the importance of each data source. Subsequently, a multi-source information fusion model is proposed to compute the weight factors of the bamboo-based materials in longitudinal and transverse directions. The reliability and failure probability of a bamboo-integrated product, in longitudinal and transverse directions, are computed according to the multi-source information fusion model-based safety assessment approach with the assistance of the Stress and Strength interface model. Finally, a comparison between the proposed safety assessment method and the conventional Stress and Strength interface model is finalized, and the results indicate that the proposed method computes more reliable results than that of the conventional method.Overall, the proposed method provides a framework for safety and reliability assessment under multiple data sources and contributes to the comprehensive application of diverse data.

“…However, the crucial challenge for decision-makers is using conventional measurement tools, including multi-objective decision-making (MODM), [5][6][7][8] or multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] The optimization in MODM can provide the optimal values for decision-making problems' variables, and MCDM can rank the set of alternatives considering different criteria. However, both MODM and MCDM are not formulated or corrected to provide reliable outcomes, according to many discussions by scholars up to this point (see the Appendix of the study 17 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…are feasible. However, the crucial challenge for decision‐makers is using conventional measurement tools, including multi‐objective decision‐making (MODM), 5–8 or multi‐criteria decision‐making (MCDM) 9–16 . The optimization in MODM can provide the optimal values for decision‐making problems’ variables, and MCDM can rank the set of alternatives considering different criteria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progressive system safety and reliability analysis: A sustainable game theory approach

Yazdi

Ding

Adumene

et al. 2022

Self Cite

This research aims to study the applicability of game theory to system safety and reliability decision‐making problems and corresponding objective conflicts using non‐cooperative games. The non‐cooperative games would solve the games considering non‐cooperative cognitive decision‐makers behaviors, which are commonly ignored by other system safety and reliability analysis (SSRA) techniques, assuming that there would be perfect cooperation between the players (decision‐makers). Game theory can also recognize and understand the decision‐makers' behaviors and provide a “win‐win” situation for all players and the best broader system outcomes. The paper also shows the use of dynamic game theory in system safety and reliability decision‐making problems over time. The results indicate the effectiveness and efficiency of game theory and show how this can better reflect decision‐makers’ opinions in system safety and reliability decision‐making problems.