A Risk Assessment Framework For Interconnected And Interdependent Surface Transport Networks

Abstract

The functioning and viability of modern societies is heavily depended upon the continuous and uninterruptible operation of critical infrastructures. Surface transportation systems are in the heart of the daily lives of millions of citizens globally. As such, they are open and freely accessible by design and in the past have been exploited for terrorism attacks. Like many critical infrastructures, different multimodal and heterogeneous transportation networks are interconnected as integral part of larger synergistic systems forming a "network of networks". These underlying and often concealed interconnections between network assets enable adverse effects to manifest at assets that are initially unaffected by a security incident. The present paper introduces a holistic Risk Assessment Framework for heterogeneous, transportation networks that is applicable at a strategic level, where risk is propagated between interconnected networks through an "Incident Propagation Matrix" taking into account the nature of the interconnection and the type of threat. The proposed methodology views and models the risk analysis process from the perspective of the network operator and emergency responders and emphasizes the reduction of the impacts on business continuity. g . l e v e n t a k i s · a . s f e t s o s · n . m o u s t a k i d i s · n . n i k i t a k o s · a r i s k a s s e s s m e n t f r a m e w o r k f o r i n t e r c o n n e c t e d a n d . . . · pp 811 -819 o r g a n i z a t i o n , t e c h n o l o g y a n d m a n a g e m e n t i n c o n s t r u c t i o n · a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l · 6(2)2013 812

STAR-TRANS Modeling Language

“…The concepts and procedures presented being interesting, nevertheless none of them introduces a modeling language per se, that is powerful, dynamic and able to express the risk assessment process for the specific domain. In the STAR-TRANS framework (Leventakis et al, 2011), a domain specific modeling language has been introduced, namely the STAR-TRANS Modeling Language (STML), as it is described in details in the present work.…”

“…An attack on a specific asset of a transportation network is assessed in terms of how it will impact the network-ofnetworks within which it resides, since it can have swelling-effects on it that could result in cascading failures. The Strategic Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning in Interconnected Transportation Networks (STAR-TRANS) proposal (Leventakis et al, 2011) defines a semi-empirical risk assessment framework for transportation networks, which introduces the innovative approach of estimating risk for security incidents triggered upon previously instantiated incidents. The modeling process forms a chain of incidents with the common characteristic that a newly created cascading incident can be the potential trigger for other incidents.…”

Risk assessment on multimodal transport network based on quality function deployment

“…The existing research on the risk assessment of multimodal transport network includes not only various qualitative assessment methods, but also a variety of quantitative risk assessment models. Among them, Fontaine et al 10 held that the regional risks in the multimodal transport network were closely related to the population of the area, and established a related risk measurement balance model to evaluate the local and overall risks in the network; Basu and Verma 11 considered the different characteristics of geographical locations in different regions, and used the expected result‐oriented method to estimate the risk of each node in the multimodal transport network to further analyze the feasibility of adopting various modes of transport in different regions; Leventakis et al 12 proposed that the risks of multimodal transport network spread in the network through the event propagation matrix, and established an overall framework suitable for the risk assessment of heterogeneous transport network to determine the possibility of various risks. Nitsenko et al 13 proposed a mathematical model that could be used to calculate the overall risk of a multimodal transport network.…”

A Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Transportation Networks Affected by Rainfall‐Induced Multihazards

“…Risk is usually defined as “effect of uncertainty on objectives,” which includes both the likelihood of event occurrence and the associated consequence. In the strategic risk analysis framework for surface transportation systems proposed by Leventakis et al ., the risk is evaluated from an iterative process assessing the probability of occurrence of the threat (likelihood) and the consequences in the event a realization occurs. One tradition with roots in the vulnerability analysis of networks is based on their topological properties, which allows one to determine the relative importance of links in a network in terms of connectivity.…”