A risk prediction nomogram for resistant hypertension in patients with obstructive sleep apnea

Abstract

Patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) are liable to have resistant hypertension (RH) associated with unfavorable cardiovascular events. It is of necessity to predict OSA patients who are susceptible to resistant hypertension. Hence, we conducted a retrospective study based on the clinical records of OSA patients admitted to Yixing Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University from January 2018 to December 2022. According to different time periods, patients diagnosed between January 2018 and December 2021 were included in the training set (n = 539) for modeling, and those diagnosed between January 2022 and December 2022 were enrolled into the validation set (n = 259) for further assessment. The incidence of RH in the training set and external validation set was comparable (P = 0.396). The related clinical data of patients enrolled were collected and analyzed through univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors and construct a nomogram. Finally, five variables were confirmed as independent risk factors for OSA patients with RH, including smoking, heart disease, neck circumference, AHI and T90. The nomogram established on the basis of variables above was shown to have good discrimination and calibration in both the training set and validation set. Decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram was useful for a majority of OSA patients. Therefore, our nomogram might be useful to identify OSA patients at high risk of developing RH and facilitate the individualized management of OSA patients in clinical practice.