A risk score for predicting death in COVID‐19 in‐hospital infection: A Brazilian single‐center study

Abstract

Background There is a paucity of information about Brazilian COVID‐19 in‐hospital mortality probability of death combining risk factors. Objective We aimed to correlate COVID‐19 Brazilian in‐hospital patients' mortality to demographic aspects, biomarkers, tomographic, echocardiographic findings, and clinical events. Methods A prospective study, single tertiary center in Brazil, consecutive patients hospitalized with COVID‐19. We analyzed the data from 111 patients from March to August 2020, performed a complete transthoracic echocardiogram, chest thoracic tomographic (CT) studies, collected biomarkers and correlated to in‐hospital mortality. Results Mean age of the patients: 67 ± 17 years old, 65 (58.5%) men, 29 (26%) presented with systemic arterial hypertension, 18 (16%) with diabetes, 11 (9.9%) with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. There was need for intubation and mechanical ventilation of 48 (43%) patients, death occurred in 21/111 (18.9%) patients. Multiple logistic regression models correlated variables with mortality: age (OR: 1.07; 95% CI 1.02–1.12; p : 0.012; age >74 YO AUC ROC curve: 0.725), intubation need (OR: 23.35; 95% CI 4.39–124.36; p < 0.001), D dimer (OR: 1.39; 95% CI 1.02–1.89; p : 0.036; value >1928.5 ug/L AUC ROC curve: 0.731), C‐reactive protein (OR: 1.18; 95% CI 1.05–1.32; p < 0.005; value >29.35 mg/dl AUC ROC curve: 0.836). A risk score was created to predict intrahospital probability of death, by the equation: 3.6 (age >75 YO) + 66 (intubation need) + 28 (C‐reactive protein >29) + 2.2 (D dimer >1900). Conclusions A novel and original risk score were developed to predict the probability of death in Covid 19 in‐hospital patients concerning combined risk factors.