A Significant Wave Height Prediction Method Based on Improved Temporal Convolutional Network and Attention Mechanism

Abstract

Wave prediction is crucial for ensuring the safety and disaster mitigation of coastal areas, helping to support marine economic activities. Currently, many deep learning models, such as the temporal convolutional network (TCN), have been applied to wave prediction. In this study, a prediction model based on improved TCN-Attention (ITCN-A) is proposed. This model incorporates improvements in two aspects. Firstly, to address the difficulty of calibrating hyperparameters in traditional TCN models, a whale optimization algorithm (WOA) has been introduced to achieve global optimization of hyperparameters. Secondly, we integrate dynamic ReLU to implement an adaptive activation function. The improved TCN is then combined with the attention mechanism to further enhance the extraction of long-term features of wave height. We conducted experiments using data from three buoy stations with varying water depths and geographical locations, covering prediction lead times ranging from 1 h to 24 h. The results demonstrate that the proposed integrated model reduces the RMSE of prediction by 12.1% and MAE by an 18.6% compared with the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Consequently, this model effectively improves the accuracy of wave height predictions at different stations, verifying its effectiveness and general applicability.