A simple prediction score for in-hospital mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Matsuhashi, Tamotsu; Hatta, Waku; Hikichi, Takuto; Fukuda, Sho; Mikami, Taisei; Tatsuta, Tetsuya; Nakamura, Jun; Abe, Yasuhiko; Onozato, Yusuke; Ogata, Yohei; Masamune, Atsushi; Ohyauchi, Motoki; Ito, Hirotaka; Hanabata, Norihiro; Araki, Yasumitsu; Yanagita, Takumi; Imamura, Hidemichi; Tsuji, Takeshi; Sugawara, K.; Horikawa, Yohei; Ohara, Shuichi; Kondo, Yutaka; Dohmen, Takahiro; Kakuta, Yoichi; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Iijima, Katsunori

doi:10.1007/s00535-021-01797-w

Cited by 24 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The score successfully discriminated patients with UGIB who were at risk for in-hospital mortality with an AUC of 0.90 for derivation cohort, and 0.81 for the validation cohort, and had had significantly higher discriminative ability than the GBS, cRS, AIMS65 score, and ABC score 14 . In addition, the CHAMPS score can be applied to patients with UGIB, irrespective of the status of hospitalization (outpatient onset and inpatient onset) 14 , although most of the previous scores could only be applied to the outpatient status at the development of UGIB 14 . Furthermore, since the CHAMPS score does not require endoscopic findings 14 , the score could be applied to not only patients with UGIB but also patients with LGIB.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We have recently developed a simple prediction score, the CHAMPS score using the clinical data of 2205 subjects with UGIB, to predict in-hospital mortality based on six easily available clinical variables 14 , 15 . The score successfully discriminated patients with UGIB who were at risk for in-hospital mortality with an AUC of 0.90 for derivation cohort, and 0.81 for the validation cohort, and had had significantly higher discriminative ability than the GBS, cRS, AIMS65 score, and ABC score 14 . In addition, the CHAMPS score can be applied to patients with UGIB, irrespective of the status of hospitalization (outpatient onset and inpatient onset) 14 , although most of the previous scores could only be applied to the outpatient status at the development of UGIB 14 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the CHAMPS score can be applied to patients with UGIB, irrespective of the status of hospitalization (outpatient onset and inpatient onset) 14 , although most of the previous scores could only be applied to the outpatient status at the development of UGIB 14 . Furthermore, since the CHAMPS score does not require endoscopic findings 14 , the score could be applied to not only patients with UGIB but also patients with LGIB.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Usefulness of the CHAMPS score for risk stratification in lower gastrointestinal bleeding

Tajika

Matsuhashi

Shimodaira

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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We have recently developed a simple prediction score, the CHAMPS score, to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. In this study, the primary outcome of this study was the usefulness of the CHAMPS score for predicting in-hospital mortality with lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB). Consecutive adult patients who were hospitalized with LGIB at two tertiary academic medical centers from 2015 to 2020 were retrospectively enrolled. The performance for predicting outcomes with CHAMPS score was assessed by a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and compared with four existing scores. In 387 patients enrolled in this study, 39 (10.1%) of whom died during the hospitalization. The CHAMPS score showed good performance in predicting in-hospital mortality in LGIB patients with an AUC (95% confidence interval) of 0.80 (0.73–0.87), which was significantly higher in comparison to the existing scores. The risk of in-hospital mortality as predicted by the CHAMPS score was shown: low risk (score ≤ 1), 1.8%; intermediate risk (score 2 or 3), 15.8%; and high risk (score ≥ 4), 37.1%. The CHAMPS score is useful for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with LGIB.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Usefulness of the CHAMPS score for risk stratification in lower gastrointestinal bleeding

Tajika

Matsuhashi

Shimodaira

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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“…Candidate variables with a difference of p < 0.2 in univariate analysis were entered into forward stepwise selection based on Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC), and selected variables were analyzed by multivariate analysis. We allocated points proportional to β regression coefficient values for the predictive variables determined in the multivariate analysis as previously reported [ 44 , 45 ]. The coefficient of each variable was divided by the lowest β value among variables included into the final prediction model and rounded to the nearest integer.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Preoperative Scoring System for Predicting Aggressiveness of Non-Functioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

et al. 2022

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The management of non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (NF-PanNENs) is still controversial. This study aimed to develop a new scoring system for treatment decisions at initial diagnosis based on the identification of the predictive factors for aggressive NF-PanNENs. Seventy-seven patients who had been pathologically diagnosed with NF-PanNENs were enrolled. We retrospectively reviewed 13 variables that could be assessed preoperatively. Univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors for the aggressiveness of NF-PanNENs, and a scoring system was developed by assigning weighted points proportional to their β regression coefficient. Tumor size > 20 mm on contrast-enhanced computed tomography, tumor non-vascularity, and Ki-67 labeling index ≥5% on endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration specimens were identified as independent factors for predicting the aggressiveness of NF-PanNENs. The new scoring system, developed using the identified factors, had an excellent discrimination ability, with area under the curve of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.85–0.99), and good calibration (p = 0.72, Hosmer-Lemeshow test). Ten-year overall survival rates in low-risk (0 point), intermediate-risk (1 to 2 points), and high-risk (3 to 4 points) groups were 100%, 90.9%, and 24.3%, respectively. This new scoring system would be useful for treatment decisions and prognostic prediction at initial diagnosis.

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Glasgow‐Blatchford score combined with nasogastric aspirate as a new diagnostic algorithm for patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

et al. 2022

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Objectives The Glasgow‐Blatchford score (GBS) is a widely used risk assessment tool for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, it only identifies a relatively low proportion of patients at low risk for adverse events and poor outcomes. We developed a simple diagnostic algorithm combining the GBS and nasogastric aspirate and evaluated its diagnostic performance. Methods A total of 115 consecutive patients with suspected nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding who underwent nasogastric tube placement and upper endoscopy at our emergency department were prospectively evaluated. We compared the diagnostic accuracy of the GBS and our algorithm for predicting high‐risk endoscopic lesions (HRELs) using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results Thirty‐five patients had HRELs. Compared with the GBS, our algorithm showed superior performance with respect to the prediction of HRELs (area under the curve, 0.639 and 0.854, respectively; p < 0.001). With set optimal threshold values, the algorithm identified a significantly higher proportion of patients who did not have HRELs than the GBS (23.5% vs. 2.6%, p < 0.001). Conclusions The novel algorithm has improved the diagnostic performance of the GBS and predicted more patients who did not have HRELs than the GBS alone. After further validation, it may be a useful tool for making clinical management decisions for patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

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A simple prediction score for in-hospital mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Cited by 24 publications

References 30 publications

Usefulness of the CHAMPS score for risk stratification in lower gastrointestinal bleeding

Usefulness of the CHAMPS score for risk stratification in lower gastrointestinal bleeding

A New Preoperative Scoring System for Predicting Aggressiveness of Non-Functioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

Glasgow‐Blatchford score combined with nasogastric aspirate as a new diagnostic algorithm for patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

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