A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China

Li, Jie; Fu, Yanjun; Xu, Ancha; Zhou, Zumu; Wang, Weiming

doi:10.1155/2014/238724

Cited by 6 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The age distribution of HFMD cases in Asia, compiled from a variety of sources including surveillance and cohort data, is summarized in Figure 5. Data from China [12][13][14]34,[49][50][51][52]94,[100][101][102][103][105][106][107] and Taiwan 5,6,73,108-111 are particularly abundant. Other sources include Hong Kong, 17,18 India, 76,80 Japan, 56,112 Korea, 54,95 Malaysia, 84,113 Singapore, 4,27,88 Thailand 22,23 and Vietnam.…”

Section: Age Distribution Of Hfmd Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Epidemiology of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Asia

Koh

Bogich

Siegel

et al. 2016

Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal

215

167

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Context:Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a widespread pediatric disease caused primarily by human enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16).Objective:This study reports a systematic review of the epidemiology of HFMD in Asia.Data Sources:PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar were searched up to December 2014.Study Selection:Two reviewers independently assessed studies for epidemiologic and serologic information about prevalence and incidence of HFMD against predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria.Data Extraction:Two reviewers extracted answers for 8 specific research questions on HFMD epidemiology. The results are checked by 3 others.Results:HFMD is found to be seasonal in temperate Asia with a summer peak and in subtropical Asia with spring and fall peaks, but not in tropical Asia; evidence of a climatic role was identified for temperate Japan. Risk factors for HFMD include hygiene, age, gender and social contacts, but most studies were underpowered to adjust rigorously for confounding variables. Both community-level and school-level transmission have been implicated, but their relative importance for HFMD is inconclusive. Epidemiologic indices are poorly understood: No supporting quantitative evidence was found for the incubation period of EV-A71; the symptomatic rate of EV-A71/Coxsackievirus A16 infection was from 10% to 71% in 4 studies; while the basic reproduction number was between 1.1 and 5.5 in 3 studies. The uncertainty in these estimates inhibits their use for further analysis.Limitations:Diversity of study designs complicates attempts to identify features of HFMD epidemiology.Conclusions:Knowledge on HFMD remains insufficient to guide interventions such as the incorporation of an EV-A71 vaccine in pediatric vaccination schedules. Research is urgently needed to fill these gaps.

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Section: Age Distribution Of Hfmd Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Epidemiology of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Asia

Koh

Bogich

Siegel

et al. 2016

Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal

215

167

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“…Similar to that in [5], we can obtain the threshold dynamics of model (1) as follows. Figure 1: e specific geography location of Wenzhou city, including 10 districts' county-level cities/counties [6].…”

Section: Dynamic Model Of Hfmdmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, Li et al [6] found that the distribution of HFMD in Wenzhou is heterogeneous at county level and Ouhai municipal district is the most severe region, followed by Lucheng, Longwan, and Ruian. For the sake of learning of HFMD dynamics in Wenzhou, we show the numerical results of 10 districts' county-level cities or counties in Figure 4.…”

Section: Parameter Estimation and Numerical Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…HFMD predominantly affects children younger than 5 years old, and most patients exhibit a self-limiting illness that typically includes fever, skin eruptions on the hands and feet, and vesicles in the mouth [1,2,4]. Also, it is a highly contagious disease with a latency period of 2-7 d. More often than not, the patients will recover over 7 to 10 d [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Particularly, Zhu et al [5] established an SEIQRS epidemic model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the spread of seasonal HFMD in Wenzhou and found that HFMD becomes an endemic disease in Wenzhou, and for controlling the spread of HFMD, it is beneficial to increase the quarantined rate or decrease the treatment cycle. In [6], the authors presented a spatial-temporal ARMA model and found that HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation and the incidence seasonal peak was between May and July. Zhou et al [21] investigated the epidemiological feature of HFMD in Wenzhou.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Optimal Control Strategies of HFMD in Wenzhou, China

Ding

Cai

et al. 2020

Complexity

Self Cite

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In this paper, we investigate the dynamics and optimal control strategies of a modified hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) model incorporating the EV-A71 vaccination in Wenzhou, China, analytically and numerically. We define the basic reproduction number R0 and show that it can be used to determine whether HFMD becomes extinct or not. Based on the monthly reported HFMD cases in Wenzhou for 76 months, we estimate the parameters in the dynamic model by using the method of minimum chi-square fitting, conduct the sensitivity analysis to investigate the influence of each uncertain parameter on R0 with the methods of Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficient, and find that the EV-A71 vaccination does not lead to the extinction of HFMD, but slightly reduces the incidence of HFMD. In order to control the spread of HFMD in Wenzhou, we need to increase the rate of EV-A71 vaccination, decrease the contact rates, and shorten the course of disease.

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Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Thailand: A Comprehensive Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics

Verma

Razzaque

Sangtongdee

et al. 2021

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious disease with several outbreaks in Asian-Pacific countries, including Thailand. With such epidemic characteristics and potential economic impact, HFMD is a significant public health issue in Thailand. Generally, contagious/infectious diseases’ transmission dynamics vary across geolocations due to different socioeconomic situations, demography, and lifestyles. Hence, a nationwide comprehensive model of the disease’s epidemic dynamics can provide information to understand better and predict a potential outbreak of this disease and efficiently and effectively manage its impact. However, there is no nationwide and comprehensive (i.e., the inclusion of reinfections in the model) model of HFDM dynamics for Thailand. This paper has endeavoured to promote nationwide comprehensive modelling of HFMD’s epidemic dynamics and comprehend the reinfection cases. We have formulated the SEIRS epidemiological model with dynamic vitals, including reinfections, to explore this disease’s prevalence. We also introduced periodic seasonality to reproduce the seasonal effect. The pattern of spread of this disease is uneven across the provinces in Thailand, so we used K -means clustering algorithm to cluster those provinces into three groups (i.e., highly, moderately, and least affected levels). We also analysed health records collected from district hospitals, which suggest significant reinfection cases. For example, we found that 11% (approximately) of infectious patients return for repeat treatment within the study period. We also performed sensitivity analysis which indicates that the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) is sensitive to the rate of transmission ( β ) and the rate at which infected people recover ( γ ). By fitting the model with HFMD confirmed data for the provinces in each cluster, the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) was estimated to be 2.643, 1.91, and 3.246 which are greater than 1. Based on this high R 0 , this study recommends that this disease will persist in the coming years under identical cultural and environmental conditions.

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A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China

Cited by 6 publications

References 33 publications

The Epidemiology of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Asia

The Epidemiology of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Asia

Optimal Control Strategies of HFMD in Wenzhou, China

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Thailand: A Comprehensive Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics

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