A Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth in Albania

Abstract

Tourism has become an important sector in Albania in recent years. After the pandemic period where the tourism industry suffered a big blow, the year 2022 has turned out to be very successful in this sector. Tourism this year is extending throughout the year, unlike previous years, which focused only on summer. In this paper, we analyzed the number of tourists and economic growth in Albania for the years 2016-2022 with quarterly frequencies (until the third quarter of 2022). The purpose of the paper is to analyze the relationship between the two variables in the short and long term periods. AIC, BIC, HQC model selection criteria are used throughout the analysis, the ADF test is used for series stationarity, the Granger test for causality and the Johansen test for co integration.