A stochastic compartmental model to simulate intra- and inter-species influenza transmission in an indoor swine farm

Abstract

Common in swine production worldwide, influenza causes significant clinical disease and potential transmission to the workforce. Swine vaccines are not universally used in swine production, due to their limited efficacy because of continuously evolving influenza viruses. We evaluated the effects of vaccination, isolation of infected pigs, and changes to workforce routine (ensuring workers moved from younger pig batches to older pig batches). A Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was used to simulate stochastic influenza transmission during a single production cycle on an indoor hog growing unit containing 4000 pigs and two workers. The absence of control practices resulted in 3,957 pigs [0–3971] being infected and a 0.61 probability of workforce infection. Assuming incoming pigs had maternal-derived antibodies (MDAs), but no control measures were applied, the total number of infected pigs reduced to 1 [0–3958] and the probability of workforce infection was 0.25. Mass vaccination (40% efficacious) of incoming pigs also reduced the total number of infected pigs to 2362 [0–2374] or 0 [0–2364] in pigs assumed to not have MDAs and have MDAs, respectively. Changing the worker routine by starting with younger to older pig batches, reduced the number of infected pigs to 996 [0–1977] and the probability of workforce infection (0.22) in pigs without MDAs. In pigs with MDAs the total number of infected pigs was reduced to 0 [0–994] and the probability of workforce infection was 0.06. All other control practices alone, showed little improvement in reducing total infected pigs and the probability of workforce infection. Combining all control strategies reduced the total number of infected pigs to 0 or 1 with a minimal probability of workforce infection (<0.0002–0.01). These findings suggest that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce the impact of influenza on swine production and workers when efficacious vaccines are unavailable.