A stochastic model for the hourly solar radiation process for application in renewable resources management

Koudouris, Giannis; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Mamassis, Nikοs; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

doi:10.5194/adgeo-45-139-2018

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The hourly global solar irradiance data measured in the Eagle Ford area between 1991-2010 was used to calculate the monthly average hourly clearness index (k t ) values. The index is the ratio of the global solar irradiance on a horizontal surface (I) to the hourly extraterrestrial solar irradiance on a horizontal surface (I o ), as shown in Equation 128, which is considered as a stochastic parameter because it is a function of a period of year, seasons, climatic conditions, and geographic site [88].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Stochastic Optimization Approach to the Design of Shale Gas/Oil Wastewater Treatment Systems with Multiple Energy Sources under Uncertainty

Al-Aboosi

El‐Halwagi

2019

Sustainability

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The production of shale gas and oil is associated with the generation of substantial amounts of wastewater. With the growing emphasis on sustainable development, the energy sector has been intensifying efforts to manage water resources while diversifying the energy portfolio used in treating wastewater to include fossil and renewable energy. The nexus of water and energy introduces complexity in the optimization of the water management systems. Furthermore, the uncertainty in the data for energy (e.g., solar intensity) and cost (e.g., price fluctuation) introduce additional complexities. The objective of this work is to develop a novel framework for the optimizing wastewater treatment and water-management systems in shale gas production while incorporating fossil and solar energy and accounting for uncertainties. Solar energy is utilized via collection, recovery, storage, and dispatch of heat. Heat integration with an adjacent industrial facility is considered. Additionally, electric power production is intended to supply a reverse osmosis (RO) plant and the local electric grid. The optimization problem is formulated as a multi-scenario mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) problem that is a deterministic equivalent of a two-stage stochastic programming model for handling uncertainty in operational conditions through a finite set of scenarios. The results show the capability of the system to address water-energy nexus problems in shale gas production based on the system’s economic and environmental merits. A case study for Eagle Ford Basin in Texas is solved by enabling effective water treatment and energy management strategies to attain the maximum annual profit of the entire system while achieving minimum environmental impact.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Stochastic Optimization Approach to the Design of Shale Gas/Oil Wastewater Treatment Systems with Multiple Energy Sources under Uncertainty

Al-Aboosi

El‐Halwagi

2019

Sustainability

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“…The temporal variability is triggered by the short-term high autocorrelation as well as by the long-term behaviour identified from the time series analysis (Dimitriadis and Koutsoyiannis, 2015) of solar irradiation both over the area of interest and globally (Koudouris et al, 2017(Koudouris et al, , 2018. A proper measure to express the strength of the long-term persistence of a stochastic process is the Hurst parameter, (Hurst, 1951;Koutsoyiannis, 2010). Interestingly, the Hurst parameter for the clearness index over the area of interest is estimated around 0.8 (Koudouris et al, 2017) indi- 1.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar-powered bus route: introducing renewable energy into a university campus transport system

Ioannidis

Iliopoulou

et al. 2019

Adv. Geosci.

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Abstract. We investigate the application of a solar-powered bus route to a small-scale transportation system, as such of a university campus. In particular, we explore the prospect of replacing conventional fossil fuel buses by electric buses powered by solar energy and electricity provided by the central grid. To this end, we employ GIS mapping technology to estimate the solar radiation at the university campus and, accordingly, we investigate three different scenarios for harnessing the available solar power: (1) solar panels installed on the roof of bus stop shelters, (2) solar panels installed at an unused open space in the university, and (3) solar roads, i.e. roads constructed by photovoltaic (PV) materials. For each of the three scenarios, we investigate the optimal technical configuration, the resulting energy generation, as well as the capital cost for application in the case of NTUA campus in Athens (Greece). The preliminary feasibility analysis showcases that all three scenarios contribute to satisfying transportation demand, proportionately to their size, with scenario (2) presenting the lowest capital cost in relation to energy generation. Therefore, we further explore this scenario by simulating its daily operation including the actions of buying and selling energy to the central grid, when there is energy deficit or surplus, respectively. A sensitivity analysis is carried out in order to ascertain the optimal size of the solar panel installation in relation to profit and reliability. Overall, results indicate that, albeit the high capital costs, solar-powered transportation schemes present a viable alternative for replacing conventional buses at the studied location, especially considering conventional PV panels. We note that present results heavily depend on the choice of capacity factors of PV materials, which differ among technologies. Yet, as capacity factors of PV panels are currently increasing, the studied schemes might be more promising in the future.

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“…For the sake of brevity, six of them are presented here, which are more precise for this type of data. Three of them (Beta, Kumaraswamy (Kuma) and Logit-Normal (LogitN)) are suitable for fitting random variables bounded within [0, 1], which is the typical range of average daily CSI values [13,39]. The other three (Logistic (Logist), Log-Logistic (Log-Log), and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)) are suitable instead for modeling unbounded random variables; however, they may also be useful to characterize bounded variables such as average daily CSI [40].…”

Section: Pool Of Selected Probability Density Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generation Data of Synthetic High Frequency Solar Irradiance for Data-Driven Decision-Making in Electrical Distribution Grids

et al. 2021

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In this paper, we introduce a model representing the key characteristics of high frequency variations of solar irradiance and photovoltaic (PV) power production based on Clear Sky Index (CSI) data. The model is suitable for data-driven decision-making in electrical distribution grids, e.g., descriptive/predictive analyses, optimization, and numerical simulation. We concentrate on solar irradiance data since the power production of a PV system strongly correlates with solar irradiance at the site location. The solar irradiance is not constant due to the Earth’s orbit and irradiance absorption/scattering from the clouds. To simulate the operation of a PV system with one-minute resolution for a specific coordinate, we have to use a model based on the CSI of the solar irradiance data, capturing the uncertainties caused by cloud movements. The proposed model is based on clustering the days of each year into groups of days, e.g., (i) cloudy, (ii) intermittent cloudy, and (iii) clear sky. The CSI data of each group are divided into bins of magnitudes and the transition probabilities among the bins are identified to deliver a Markov Chain (MC) model to track the intraday weather condition variations. The proposed model is tested on the measurements of two PV systems located at two different climatic regions: (a) Yverdon-les-Bains, Switzerland; and (b) Oahu, Hawaii, USA. The model is compared with a previously published N-state MC model and the performance of the proposed model is elaborated.

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A stochastic model for the hourly solar radiation process for application in renewable resources management

Cited by 15 publications

References 24 publications

A Stochastic Optimization Approach to the Design of Shale Gas/Oil Wastewater Treatment Systems with Multiple Energy Sources under Uncertainty

A Stochastic Optimization Approach to the Design of Shale Gas/Oil Wastewater Treatment Systems with Multiple Energy Sources under Uncertainty

Solar-powered bus route: introducing renewable energy into a university campus transport system

Generation Data of Synthetic High Frequency Solar Irradiance for Data-Driven Decision-Making in Electrical Distribution Grids

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