A strategy for perturbing surface initial conditions in LAMEPS

Wang, Yong; Kann, Alexander; Belluš, Martin; Pailleux, Jean; Wittmann, Christoph

doi:10.1002/asl.260

Cited by 21 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Further, the use of NCSB ensures larger consistency in the surface coupling of ALADIN with ECMWF, which improves the forecast quality. Wang et al (2010) showed that the positive impact of NCSB can be achieved for the lower-atmospheric variables, such as those at 850 hPa.…”

Section: Verification Of Upper-air Weather Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The detailed description and discussion of blending, in particular the technical implementation in ALADIN-LAEF and details on the tuning of the breeding-blending cycle, are given in Bellus (2008) and Bellus et al (2010).…”

Section: Blending Large-scale Perturbations From Svs and Small-scale mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…soil moisture content and surface temperature, is briefly described. More detailed description and discussion of NCSB are given in Wang et al (2010).…”

Section: Surface Initial Condition Perturbationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN‐LAEF

Wang

Belluš

Wittmann

et al. 2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Section: Verification Of Upper-air Weather Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Blending Large-scale Perturbations From Svs and Small-scale mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN‐LAEF

Wang

Belluš

Wittmann

et al. 2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…2 Ensemble systems and data 2.1 The regional ensemble ALADIN-LAEF ALADIN-LAEF is the operational regional ensemble system of ZAMG and runs at ECMWF (Wang et al, 2010. It is based on the hydrostatic spectral limited area model AL-ADIN ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main emphasis is put on the variation and tunings of the following schemes and parameterizations: the diagnostic convection scheme as described in Bougeault (1985); the prognostic deep convection scheme 3MT (modular multiscale microphysics and transport scheme; Gerard et al, 2009), and the connected microphysics scheme described in Geleyn et al (2008) and Gerard et al (2009); the radiation scheme based on Ritter and Geleyn (1992) or alternatively the scheme described in Mlawer (1997) and Morcrette (1991); the pseudo-prognostic TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme described in Vana et al (2008). Further details can be found in Wang et al (2010). Authors are aware that the forecasts of the individual members produced by the multi-physics approach cannot be regarded as equally likely.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Schellander-Gorgas¹,

Wang²,

Meier³

et al. 2017

Geosci. Model Dev.

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Abstract. The 2.5 km convection-permitting (CP) ensemble AROME-EPS (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale -Ensemble Prediction System) is evaluated by comparison with the regional 11 km ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption dynamique Développement InterNational -Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) to show whether a benefit is provided by a CP EPS. The evaluation focuses on the abilities of the ensembles to quantitatively predict precipitation during a 3-month convective summer period over areas consisting of mountains and lowlands. The statistical verification uses surface observations and 1 km × 1 km precipitation analyses, and the verification scores involve state-of-the-art statistical measures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts as well as novel spatial verification methods. The results show that the convectionpermitting ensemble with higher-resolution AROME-EPS outperforms its mesoscale counterpart ALADIN-LAEF for precipitation forecasts. The positive impact is larger for the mountainous areas than for the lowlands. In particular, the diurnal precipitation cycle is improved in AROME-EPS, which leads to a significant improvement of scores at the concerned times of day (up to approximately one-third of the scored verification measure). Moreover, there are advantages for higher precipitation thresholds at small spatial scales, which are due to the improved simulation of the spatial structure of precipitation.

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Impact of land surface stochastic physics in ALADIN‐LAEF

Wang

Belluš

Weidle

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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To deal with the land surface physics uncertainties, a stochastic scheme based on stochastic perturbation of physics tendencies is implemented and tested. The impact of land surface physics uncertainties and their relative importance to land surface initial uncertainties are investigated in the regional ensemble forecasting system ALADIN‐LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting). The land surface initial perturbation is generated by using an ensemble of land surface data assimilation; and the land surface physics uncertainties by applying the idea of stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies (SPPT) scheme. Three experiments are conducted and compared with the reference ensemble over a 2‐month period. The results show the introduction of land surface stochastic physics increases the ensemble spread, reduces the ensemble bias, and keeps neutral in deterministic forecast skill of the ensemble, its impact strongly depending on the quality of ensemble initial conditions. The ensemble land surface data assimilation has stronger positive impact on the ALADIN‐LAEF than the land surface stochastic physics for screen‐level temperature and humidity. There is not much impact on 10 m wind and precipitation. Best results are obtained when both the ensemble land surface data assimilation and land surface stochastic physics are used simultaneously; it gives a more reliable and statistically consistent forecast, which is contributed mainly by ensemble land surface data assimilation in the first forecast hours and largely by land surface stochastic physics in the later forecast hours.

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A strategy for perturbing surface initial conditions in LAMEPS

Cited by 21 publications

References 17 publications

The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN‐LAEF

The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN‐LAEF

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Impact of land surface stochastic physics in ALADIN‐LAEF

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