A Study of the Condition of Timber Production in Iran and the Expected Production Rate in the Next Decade

Abstract

In countries with industrial forests, the first resource for providing domestic timber is their productive forests. Iran, a country that holds a few timber forests in the north, has implemented deterministic programming in the past few decades. Knowing the process of timber production in these forests and also the condition of these products that are affected by the above mentioned programming is very crucial. Therefore, the present study focuses on the timber production of Iran's northern forests in a 33-year period (from 1978 to 2010), using simple regression analysis and time series. The results of square regression analysis revealed that this process has a significant relationship with the years under study and shows inconsistent changes. Furthermore, the overall inflation in domestic market of Iran has the highest effect on the deterministic programming of its northern forests. To predict timber production in Iran Auto-regressive moving average process 1-2 was employed, verifying the fact that the production rate will decline to about 740 thousand cubic meters. If current trends and decline in timber production continue, Iran would become increasingly dependent on imported timber. To avoid such dependence, or at least reduce it, it is necessary to change the present programming system from deterministic to dynamic, taking into account the internal and external risks in timber market such as inflation and average timber price.

Understanding the Use of Timber in Semi-Arid Regions: Kurdistan Region of Iraq, a Case Study

“…Notice that the last, availability in the market, was the most important characteristic the AEC industry in the KRI considered when choosing a construction material. This fact has been observed in other countries such as Australia, Iran, and South Africa [33][34][35].…”

“…Finally, it is worth mentioning that 14.58% of respondents chose structural performance, which could be related to a lack of knowledge and expertise. Notice that these barriers are common in semi-arid regions but not in the of the world [14,[33][34][35].…”

An Estimation of the Rotation Age Using Autoregressive Price Model and Trunk Analysis Data: Results for Pinus Brutia Ten

“…In recent years, farmers have used poplar species around their farms and most of the research in this area has been conducted to determine the optimal rotation age of this species. Coniferous species are planted and utilized by farmers to a lower degree, while a large volume of paper pulp of these species is imported from other countries (Adeli et al, 2012).…”

Evaluation of Regional Elevation and Blade Density Effects on the Efficiency of a 1-kW Wind Turbine for Operation in Low-Wind Counties in Iran

“…The Caspian Hyrcanian forests in Northern Iran span 1.8 million hectares, extending from the Caspian Sea coastline to an elevation of 2800 m above sea level on the northern slopes of the Alborz Mountain Range (Figure 2b). Due to the mild, humid climate and suitable soil, these forests produce more than 900,000 m 3 of wood annually [63]. In the present study, three types of hardwood grown in this area, namely alder, oak, and hornbeam, which physical properties were presented in the work of Kiaei and Samariha [64], were used for the SWT blades.…”