A system dynamics approach to land use transport interaction modelling: the strategic model MARS and its application

Abstract

Land use transport interaction models have been developed in various forms dating back to the early 1960s. They have moved from spatial interaction models or statistical models through econometric models to micro-simulation, cell-based automata and agent-based models. There has been a move towards more detail in representing space and individual behaviour. This paper presents an alternative approach which uses an intentionally developed strategic high-level model. Nevertheless this model still delivers comparable levels of statistical fi t in terms of validation but is easy to present to decision makers and planners. The paper introduces the concepts behind the MARS model, deals with validation and transferability between cities and provides example applications.

Approaches and Techniques for Modelling CO2Emissions from Road Transport

“…System dynamic models are based around causal loop diagrams (CLD) that simulate and analyse relationships and mathematical modelling of stocks and flows (Sternman, 2000). They incorporate both qualitative and quantitative techniques and analysis, making them highly versatile tools (Pfaffenbichler, Emberger, & Shepherd, 2010). describe system dynamics modelling of complex systems as a "topdown approach that looks at the process of market developments as a whole and facilitates understanding the interactions of many stakeholders .…”

A game of two cities: A toll setting game with experimental results

“…These sub-models then interact over time and the system responds to exogenous inputs for growth in residents, jobs and car ownership and to any policy intruments simulated. As MARS is not the main subject of this paper readers are referred to Pfaffenbichler et al (2010) for a more detailed description. …”

“…This full sized Leeds model in turn was calibrated/validated to UK TEMPRO forecasts (DfT, 2010) in terms of population, jobs and workers as described in Pfaffenbichler et al (2010). Table 1 compares the projected population in the inner and outer areas (zone 1 and 2 in the 2 zone model) of the 2-zone small model with the 33-zone full size model of Leeds.…”

“…It firstly applies a land use transport interaction model called MARS (Pfaffenbichler et al 2010), as a planning tool to demonstrate the potential optimal tolls for two neighbouring cities. It then applies the simulator in a game playing mode to test how decision-makers would update their strategies in response to cues including charges set by the other city and changes in own city welfare over the previous periods.…”

Evaluating sustainability of truck weight regulations: A system dynamics view

“…Han and Hayashi (2008) established an SD model of an inter-city passenger transportation system in China and then designed CO2 mitigation policies by sensitivity analysis. There is additional research that treats transportation as a sub-system of a socio-economic system, establishing SD models that reflect interrelationships among transportation, population, employment and land use and evaluating the effects of alternative policies (Fiorello, Martino & Rinaldi, 2002;Haghani, Lee & Byun, 2003;Pfaffenbichler, Emberger & Shepherd, 2010;Fiorello, Fermi & Bielanska, 2010;Pfaffenbichler, 2011;Dou, Li, Li & Gou, 2014). However, the above research does not cover the issue of overloaded trucking, which has a significant influence on the distribution of interests among stakeholders within a transportation system.…”