A System Dynamics Model to Facilitate the Development of Policy for Urban Heat Island Mitigation

Dare, Robert

doi:10.3390/urbansci5010019

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 70 publications

(178 reference statements)

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“…The positive interaction effect between conifers and albedo (Figure 3) further suggests that evapotranspiration may be a key cooling mechanism for conifers. Studies often assume that surface temperature is negatively associated with albedo, except over water [30]. However, our results suggest that conifers with a lower albedo were actually cooler.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 60%

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Conifers May Ameliorate Urban Heat Waves Better Than Broadleaf Trees: Evidence from Vancouver, Canada

Eyster

Beckage

2022

Atmosphere

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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the frequency of deadly heat waves. Heat waves are particularly devastating in cities, where air pollution is high and air temperatures are already inflated by the heat island effect. Determining how cities can ameliorate extreme summer temperature is thus critical to climate adaptation. Tree planting has been proposed to ameliorate urban temperatures, but its effectiveness, particularly of coniferous trees in temperate climates, has not been established. Here, we use remote sensing data (Landsat 8), high-resolution land cover data, and Bayesian models to understand how different tree and land cover classes affect summer surface temperature in Metro Vancouver, Canada. Although areas dominated by coniferous trees exhibited the lowest albedo (95% CrI 0.08–0.08), they were significantly (12.2 °C) cooler than areas dominated by buildings. Indeed, we found that for conifers, lower albedo was associated with lower surface temperatures. Planting and maintaining coniferous trees in cities may not only sequester CO2 to mitigate global climate change, but may also ameliorate higher temperatures and deadly heat waves locally.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 60%

“…Similarly, for bands 1 through 7, we multiplied each by 2.75 × 10 −5 and subtracted 0.2 to convert the calibrated reflectance bands into radiance units (measured in W/(m 2 sr um). We also estimated albedo because albedo is often a key driver of microclimate [30]. We calculated albedo using Equation (1), following Lee et al [31].…”

Section: Band Transformationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conifers May Ameliorate Urban Heat Waves Better Than Broadleaf Trees: Evidence from Vancouver, Canada

Eyster

Beckage

2022

Atmosphere

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“…Other studies that explored the us of SD modelling in examining climate change risks focused on exsmining effects for different policies without the quantification of potential increased or decrased in heat-related risks. For example, Dare (Dare, 2021) developed a system dynamics modeelling approach to assist in the development of heat island mitigation policies qualitively without a deeper quantification of heat-related mortality reduction. The approach proposed in this paper outline a quantitive approach on how SD can be implemented to examine heat risks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of heat vulnerability using system dynamics

Bayomi

Fernández

2023

Front. Built Environ.

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One of the major climate threats is extreme heat events, as they pose significant risks to public health that are well documented in the epidemiologic literature. The effects of extreme heat events have been evident over the past years by several extreme heat events worldwide. With the growing concerns of future heat exposure, numerous studies in the literature have developed heat vulnerability indices based on determinants that have heat-related impacts. However, there has been limited guidance on heat vulnerability assessment that accounts for the impacts of the characteristics of the built environment and changes in population dynamics over time. This paper focuses on developing the methodology for heat vulnerability assessment in urban areas using System Dynamics (SD) based on integrating three levels of the physical urban environment: the urban level, the building level, and the human adaptive capacity to heat exposure. We examine the viability of using SD modeling as an approach to examine the key drivers in heat vulnerability assessment in urban areas. Thus, the paper assesses the dynamic relationship between heat vulnerability components, namely, Susceptibility, Exposure, Coping Capacity, and Adaptive Capacity, and their effect on increased or decreased vulnerability under extreme heat events. The paper concludes with an applied case study in Cairo, Egypt, to test the use of the SD approach in assessing heat vulnerability in urban settings. Results from the proposed SD model confirm the underlying hypothesis that vulnerability from heat exposure is dynamically linked to the coping and adaptive capacity of the surrounding built environment with the urban population’s socioeconomic characteristics. The main contribution of this approach is that it allows for parallel examination of the effect of the human system that simulation models cannot include and the performance of the built environment system that epidemic heat vulnerability studies cannot capture.

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Arboreal Urban Cooling Is Driven by Leaf Area Index, Leaf Boundary Layer Resistance, and Dry Leaf Mass per Leaf Area: Evidence from a System Dynamics Model

Eyster

Beckage

2023

Atmosphere

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Heat waves are becoming more frequent due to climate change. Summer heat waves can be particularly deadly in cities, where temperatures are already inflated by abundant impervious, dark surfaces (i.e., the heat island effect). Urban heat waves might be ameliorated by planting and maintaining urban forests. Previous observational research has suggested that conifers may be particularly effective in cooling cities. However, the observational nature of these studies has prevented the identification of the direct and indirect mechanisms that drive this differential cooling. Here, we develop a systems dynamics representation of urban forests to model the effects of the percentage cover of either conifers or broadleaf trees on temperature. Our model includes physiological and morphological differences between conifers and broadleaf trees, and physical feedback among temperature and energy fluxes. We apply the model to a case study of Vancouver, BC, Canada. Our model suggests that in temperate rainforest cities, conifers may by 1.0 °C cooler than broadleaf trees; this differential increases to 1.2 °C when percentage tree cover increases from 17% to 22% and to 1.7 °C at 30% cover. Our model suggests that these differences are due to three key tree traits: leaf area index, leaf boundary layer resistance, and dry mass per leaf area. Creating urban forests that optimize these three variables may not only sequester CO2 to mitigate global climate change but also be most effective at locally minimizing deadly urban heat waves.

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A System Dynamics Model to Facilitate the Development of Policy for Urban Heat Island Mitigation

Cited by 3 publications

References 70 publications

Conifers May Ameliorate Urban Heat Waves Better Than Broadleaf Trees: Evidence from Vancouver, Canada

Conifers May Ameliorate Urban Heat Waves Better Than Broadleaf Trees: Evidence from Vancouver, Canada

Quantification of heat vulnerability using system dynamics

Arboreal Urban Cooling Is Driven by Leaf Area Index, Leaf Boundary Layer Resistance, and Dry Leaf Mass per Leaf Area: Evidence from a System Dynamics Model

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