The development of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in neonates with duct-dependent congenital heart defects (CHD) who underwent cardiac surgery is accompanied by high mortality. Analysis of predictors is necessary for understanding the pathophysiology of NEC and development of approaches for prevention to achieve favorable outcomes of cardiac surgery. The purpose of the study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting the development of NEC after cardiac surgery in neonates with duct-dependent CHD. Methods. A prognostic cohort study was performed that included full-term neonates with duct-dependent CHD who underwent cardiac surgery at the Almazov National Medical Research Center from January 2021 to September 2023. The outcome was the development/absence of stage IB-III NEC in the postoperative period. Biomarkers of NEC (intestinal fatty acid binding protein (i-FABP, ng/ml), claudin-3 (CLDN3, ng/ml), calprotectin (CALPR, ng/ml), ischemia modified albumin (IMA, ng/ml), vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF A, pg/ml)) were measured by ELISA in the blood serum before cardiac surgery and 12-14 hours after surgery. We also analyzed clinical characteristics of neonates, C-reactive protein levels, complete blood count, abdominal ultrasound, ejection fraction (EF, Teicholtz) in the preoperative and postoperative periods, surgical parameters, P(v-a)CO2/C(a-v)O2 upon arrival from the operating room, vasoactive inotropic score (VIS) and arterial blood lactate levels in the first 24 hours after surgery. The association between predictors and the development of NEC after cardiac surgery was assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Internal validation of the model was performed using 10-fold cross-validation. Results. During the observation period, 187 neonates underwent surgical treatment of duct-dependent CHD, of which 32 children developed stage IB-III NEC in the postoperative period (17.1%), two neonates required surgical treatment of NEC (6.3%). After meeting the non-inclusion and exclusion criteria, two groups of patients were formed: a main group (30 neonates who developed stages IB-III NEC in the postoperative period, of which stage III NEC was in one neonate) and a comparison group (40 neonates without NEC). Groups were comparable by types of CHD. Predictors associated with NEC (univariate analysis): intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), formula feeding before surgery, high levels of IMA before on the first postoperative day (POD), procedures performed before surgery (Rashkind procedure/valvuloplasty/stenting), lower EF in in the early postoperative period, a higher maximum level of VIS in the first 24 hours after surgery, as well as a higher level of IR in the superior mesenteric artery (SMA) and thickening of the intestinal wall on the first postoperative day (POD) Independent preoperative predictors of NEC (AUC of model 0.885, specificity 0.867): IUGR (OR 32.2 (1.4-730.3), p=0.029), formula feeding (OR 12.6 (2.6-60.2), p=0.002), IMA level before surgery (OR 1.03 (1.01-1.04), p=0.004), CLDN3 level before surgery (OR 0.5 (0.3-0.9), p=0.013). Independent early postoperative predictors of NEC: IMA level on 12-14 hour after surgery (OR 1.02 (1.01-1.03), p=0.030), P(v-a)CO2/C(a-v)O2 immediately after surgery (OR 2.3 (1.2-4.4), p=0.008), IR>0.93 in SMA (OR 7.2 (1.6-32.4), p=0.011) and thickness of intestinal wall by ultrasound on POD 1 (OR 4.9 (1.3-19.2), p=0.021). Adding of VEGF A level (12-14 hour after surgery, negatively associated with NEC) to the model increased the specificity, but the predictor was not significant. AUC of postoperative model 0.862, specificity 0.800. The final model included preoperative (IUGR, formula feeding) and postoperative predictors (IMA, P(v-a)CO2/C(a-v)O2, IR of SMA>0.93, intestinal wall thickness), AUC=0.921, specificity 0.83. Conclusion. The identified predictors indirectly indicate the role of hypoxia in the pathophysiology of NEC in term neonates with duct-dependent CHD. Breast milk feeding/mixed feeding in the preoperative period may help reduce the risk of NEC in the postoperative period. Low levels of CLDN3 before surgery were associated with the development of NEC, but the interpretation of the result is controversial.
