A Time Dependent Epidemiology Model for Hospital Resource Management in Usual Scenarios and Pandemic

Abstract

Medicine plays important role for patient's treatment and disease prevention in case of pandemic situations. A healthcare institutions such as pharmacies or hospitals must ensure the availability of medicines as well as other resources such as masks, beds, PPE kits, etc. Hospitals as a health service provider have to face several challenges. One of the challenges is unavailability of Medicines during crucial periods/outbreaks, also due to lack of centralized systems for inventory management results in poor treatment to patients in hospitals. Predictive analysis of the amount of medicine usage and resources can help in hospital asset management. But forecasting medicine usage based on only inventory data will not provide good results when an outbreak happens. As outbreaks cannot be time-series forecasted, it is not feasible to forecast medicine usage only using time-series forecasting models. We propose a forecasting model combination of time forecasting model and epidemiology SIR model to find different trends and seasonality during outbreaks.