A Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall to Predict Climate Change for Northwestern Region of Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh is one in all the foremost climate vulnerable countries of the world. In recent years, climate change studies over the country get plenty of attention by the researchers and policy makers. A substantial quantity of global climate change studies over the country use climate models to estimate future projections and uncertainties. Maximum temperature, precipitation and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of the 5th Phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the available historical data collected by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) during the period 1981-2008 in the north-western region of Bangladesh and also the comparison between these two values. It has been found that average maximum temperature shows a positive trend of increase at a rate of 0.29˚C and 5.3˚C per century respectively, for BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. But the rainfall is decreasing at a rate of 8.8 mm and 40.1 mm per century respectively for BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. It is seen that July was the maximum monsoon rainfall month and January was the lowest rainfall month. The peak frequency is slightly smaller than 12 months, which indicates that the major events are occurring before ending a year compared to the previous year. According to MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data, future normal temperature on north-western region will be increased at a rate of 1.62˚C during the period 2040-2100.

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Climate Trends in the Kyoga Plains of Uganda: Analysis of Meteorological Data and Farmers’ Perception

“…The Mann Kendall analysis is a statistical test widely used for analysing trends in climatologic (Abrha, 2015); (Djaman, Koudahe, & Ganyo, 2017); (Bhuyan, Islam, & Bhuiyan, 2018); (Tabari & Talaee, 2011) and hydrologic time-series studies (Yue & Wang, 2004); (Yue & Hashino, 2003). There are two advantages of using this test.…”

Nghiên cứu xu thế biến đổi và dự tính khí hậu trong tương lai cho tỉnh Ninh Thuận

“…Phân tích MK và TS [14][15][16][17] được ứng dụng trong nhiều lĩnh vực liên quan đến đánh giá xu thế biến đổi và dự tính các giá trị trong một chuỗi dữ liệu thời gian. Trong lĩnh vực Khí tượng và Thủy văn các phân tích này được ứng dụng nhiều trong các nghiên cứu về xu thế biến đổi nhiệt độ, lượng mưa, và hạn hán trên thế giới [18][19][20][21][22][23][24]. Tại Việt Nam, phương pháp được sử dụng ngày càng phổ biến trong các nghiên cứu về xu thế biến đổi các yếu tố liên quan đến Khí tượng và Thủy văn [25][26][27][28].…”

Rainfall Trends in the North-Western and Eastern Coastal Lines of Sri Lanka Using Non – Parametric Analysis

“…However, temperature and rainfall are very important factors influencing climate variability and extremes. Between these two, changes in rainfall is one of the most important factors, which impact the society and then determine the overall impact of climate change (Bhuyan et al, 2018). Rainfall variations have consequences on water resources, agriculture, forestry, irrigation schedules, fishery and aquaculture industry (Abdi et al, 2017).…”