A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic Sea

Abstract

The extreme significant wave height predictions often neglect within-year wave climate variability and wave directionality. Depending on a geographical region, local wind patterns and year climate variability could have an influence on the long-term prediction of waves. The Adriatic Sea having two dominant wind patterns of different characteristics, Bura and Jugo, is a great example for the case study. The 23-year hindcast wave data used in the presented study is extracted from the WorldWaves database. Based on wind and wave data, annual extreme significant wave heights generated by different wind patterns and for different months are fitted by Gumbel distribution using maximum likelihood estimation. Combined long-term extremes are then predicted by calculating system probability. It was found that considering the wave directionality, and especially the seasonality of wave climate, leads to a larger prediction of extreme significant wave heights. The extreme value prediction considering wave directionality on average yields 4% larger significant wave heights, while considering within-year climate variability leads to, on average, 8% larger extremes compared to the predictions when both effects are neglected.

Wind–Wave Conditions and Change in Coastal Landforms at the Beach–Dune Barrier of Cesine Lagoon (South Italy)

“…The Monopoli buoy (108.5 km NW from the study area; mooring depth 85 m) belonging to the National Tidegauge Network (Rete Mareografica Nazionale, in Italian) is managed by the Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, ISPRA) [36]. It was in operation from 1989 to 2014 with several breaks due to failure or service intervals [37,38], and it started operating again in 2021. Fifty (H s50 ) and 100 (H s100 ) year return heights were estimated in 6.9 ± 0.8 and 7.4 ± 0.9 m, respectively [39].…”