About relationship between hard cosmic rays flux and trauma leaps in assessing the human factor in 2007–2012 in Vilnius city

Abstract

The stable short-term prognostic relationship between a decrease of hard cosmic ray flux (HCRF) near the ground surface and subsequent leaps in traumatism occurrence within 1-3 days is known. A gamma spectrometer with a scintillation detector was used to register the HCRF near the ground surface. To achieve effective results from analysis, the criterion of a continuous decrease of HCRF was chosen 200 impulses or more within 4 hours. The present study was restricted to time periods when the cosmophysical and medical data could be compared. A correlation between HCRF decrease and increase of trauma number after 1-3 days was determined. For the shortterm prognosis of trauma leaps in 2007-2012 exceeding average monthly value by 10% and more in 1-3 days after HCRF decrease the high efficiency of the results 50-80% was obtained. The human factor has an additional influence in trauma leaps, which was considered in these studies. However, this impact is problematic to define from the whole external influences on human health. As far as number of leaps in trauma depends on the day of week with a minimum values on Tuesday and Wednesday and maximum value on Friday and Saturday. Based on an assessment the human factor has improved trauma leaps prediction results.