Accelerating the energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind in China

Abstract

China’s goal to achieve carbon (C) neutrality by 2060 requires scaling up photovoltaic (PV) and wind power from 1 to 10–15 PWh year−1 (refs. 1–5). Following the historical rates of renewable installation1, a recent high-resolution energy-system model6 and forecasts based on China’s 14th Five-year Energy Development (CFED)7, however, only indicate that the capacity will reach 5–9.5 PWh year−1 by 2060. Here we show that, by individually optimizing the deployment of 3,844 new utility-scale PV and wind power plants coordinated with ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission and energy storage and accounting for power-load flexibility and learning dynamics, the capacity of PV and wind power can be increased from 9 PWh year−1 (corresponding to the CFED path) to 15 PWh year−1, accompanied by a reduction in the average abatement cost from US$97 to US$6 per tonne of carbon dioxide (tCO2). To achieve this, annualized investment in PV and wind power should ramp up from US$77 billion in 2020 (current level) to US$127 billion in the 2020s and further to US$426 billion year−1 in the 2050s. The large-scale deployment of PV and wind power increases income for residents in the poorest regions as co-benefits. Our results highlight the importance of upgrading power systems by building energy storage, expanding transmission capacity and adjusting power load at the demand side to reduce the economic cost of deploying PV and wind power to achieve carbon neutrality in China.

Unravelling spatiotemporal patterns of solar photovoltaic plants development in China in the 21st century

“…The attributes of PV plants, such as their size and site characteristics (slope and land cover), serve as indicators of industry development. The size of PV plants correlates closely with various factors, including technology, labour, and demand for PV-generated electricity (Khatib et al 2013, Wang et al 2023b. The slope is another criterion for assessing PV planning strategies.…”

“…PV plants in China have witnessed an 87.4 GW increase in installed capacity in 2022, resulting in a cumulative capacity of 392.04 GW in total. From geographical and environmental perspectives, the rapid expansion of the PV plant industry exhibits distinct patterns, traits, and trends (Wang et al 2023b). The progress of PV plants is frequently shaped by multiple factors, including policies and environmental conditions.…”

“…Methods for investigating the installation date were also explored, such as date detection based on spatial classification results (Xia et al 2022a(Xia et al , 2022b) and spectrum-reflectance-based methods, such as Continuous monitoring of Land Disturbance (COLD) algorithm (Tao et al 2023). Other attributes, such as regional land cover (Kim et al 2021, Kruitwagen et al 2021, Xia et al 2022a, Tao et al 2023, Wang et al 2023a, 2023b and slope (Charabi and Gastli 2011) of the construction site, were investigated as well.…”

Advancements in aqueous zinc–iodine batteries: a review

“…The growing demand for energy in society has motivated scientists to delve into innovative research on new energy sources and storage solutions. 1,2 Electrochemical energy storage is a crucial area of research, and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), one of its representative technologies, have found widespread applications in the everyday lives of people. However, their production costs, safety problems, and the environmentally unfriendly nature of organic electrolytes have prompted researchers to develop partial alternatives to LIBs.…”

Safe seasonal energy and hydrogen storage in a 1 : 10 single-household-sized pilot reactor based on the steam-iron process

“…1–4 On the other side, the scale of renewable energy sources is growing rapidly, as the principal component of most national strategies to slow down global warming and decarbonize the energy sector. 5–9 Globally installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity is expected to grow at a pace of around 9% per year between 2019 and 2050, reaching about 9000 GW by 2050, compared with 480 GW in 2018. 10 Unlike traditional energy sources that produce on demand, renewable energy sources (solar, wind) have strong daily and seasonal pattern, depending on their geographic location.…”