Accident Cause Analysis and Prevention of Commercial Flight Based on the "2-4" Model

Zhang, Zhenyu; Pan, Xing

doi:10.1109/icrms.2018.00075

2018 12th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS) 2018

DOI: 10.1109/icrms.2018.00075

|View full text |Cite

Accident Cause Analysis and Prevention of Commercial Flight Based on the "2-4" Model

Zhenyu Zhang¹,

Xing Pan²

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...

Citation Types

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Year Published

2022

Publication Types

Select...

Article1

Relationship

Self Cite0

Independent1

Authors

Journals

Cited by 1 publication

References 2 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

A Hybrid Model Integrating HFACS and BN for Analyzing Human Factors in CFIT Accidents

Meng

2022

Aerospace

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) is considered a typical accident category of “low-probability-high consequence”. Human factors play an important role in CFIT accidents in such a complex and high-risk system. This study aims to explore the causal relationship and inherent correlation of CFIT accidents by the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) and Bayesian network (BN). A total of 74 global CFIT accident investigation reports from 2001 to 2020 were collected, and the main contributing factors were classified and analyzed based on the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System. Then, the model was transformed into a Bayesian network topology structure. To ensure accuracy, the prior probability of each root node was computed by the fuzzy number theory. Afterward, using the bidirectional reasoning ability of the Bayesian network under uncertainty, this study performed a systematic quantitative analysis of the controlled flight into terrain accidents, including causal reasoning analysis, diagnostic analysis, sensitivity analysis, most probable explanation, and scenario analysis. The results demonstrate that the precondition for unsafe acts (30.5%) has the greatest impact on the controlled flight into terrain accidents among the four levels of contributing factors. Inadequate supervision, intentional noncompliance with SOPs/cross-check, GPWS not installed or failure, adverse meteorological environment, and ground-based navigation aid malfunction or not being available are recognized as the top significant contributing factors. The contributing factors of the high sensitivity and most likely failure are identified, and the coupling effect between the different contributing factors is verified. This study can provide guidance for CFIT accident analysis and prevention.

show abstract

A Hybrid Model Integrating HFACS and BN for Analyzing Human Factors in CFIT Accidents

Meng

2022

Aerospace

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.

Contact Info

customersupport@researchsolutions.com

10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614

Henderson, NV 89052, USA

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Blog Terms and Conditions API Terms Privacy Policy Contact Cookie Preferences Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information

Made with 💙 for researchers

Part of the Research Solutions Family.

Accident Cause Analysis and Prevention of Commercial Flight Based on the "2-4" Model

Cited by 1 publication

References 2 publications

A Hybrid Model Integrating HFACS and BN for Analyzing Human Factors in CFIT Accidents

A Hybrid Model Integrating HFACS and BN for Analyzing Human Factors in CFIT Accidents

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About