Accident Prediction Models for Akure – Ondo Carriageway, Ondo State Southwest Nigeria; Using Multiple Linear Regressions

Abstract

Accident data on the 52km Akure-Ondo Carriageway and Spot Speed data were collected and analyzed. The analysis of the Spot Speed gives an average of 51.5km/hr and 110.75km/hr for the 15 th and 85 th percentile speed respectively, the 85 th percentile speed is higher than the posted speed limit of 60km/hr which indicate that the vehicle travelling at this speed are susceptible to accident. The analysis for the study area also shows that 759 peopled were involved in the accidents, 108 persons were killed and about 348 persons were injured between 2002-2007, 38% of the accident were fatal accident and 62% non-fatal accident, However, the regression analysis carried out on the accident data with number of accident as the dependent variables and number of people killed in the accident(X 1), number of people injure(X 2), number of people involved in the accident(X 3) as independent variables; gives a coefficient of correlation "R" value of 70.70% and coefficient of determination "R 2 "of 49.70% respectively. Factors such as driver's behavior, poorly maintained vehicles, non adherence to traffic rules, poorly maintained road and verges, and over-speeding are causatives factors to road accident. However, road safety plans and road safety audit that are

Maximal Covering Location Problem (MCLP) for the identification of potential optimal COVID-19 testing facility sites in Nigeria

“…The drive time of 60 km/hr was used because it represents the average maximum drive speed on highways. Owoaje et al (2005) and Oyedepo and Makinde (2010) noted that a vehicle traveling above this speed limit is susceptible to accident. The number of LGAs that are within 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 hr drive times from the existing NCDCMLs were evaluated as baseline scenarios.…”

“…The 60 km/hr benchmark was used because of the poor quality of most roads, especially intracity roads as well as those roads connecting rural communities to large urban centers (Nwachukwu, 2014). Furthermore, it represents the average maximum drive speed on highways and vehicle traveling above this speed limit is susceptible to accident (Owoaje et al, 2005;Oyedepo & Makinde, 2010).These factors may have limited the number of LGAs within the drive times considered. It should also be noted that the use of actual roadnetwork as opposed to Euclidean distance might also have reduced the number of LGAs within the 60 km/hr drive time.…”

Development of Road Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Owo Highway, Ondo State, Nigeria

“…7 Accident prediction models were developed for Akure-Ondo carriageway using multiple linear regression. 8 The spot speed analysis indicated that higher value of 85th percentile contributed to the accidents on the carriageway with a posted speed limit of 60 km/hr; other contributing factors stated are drivers' behaviour, poorly maintained vehicles, non-adherence to traffic rules, poorly maintained road and verges, and over-speeding.…”