Accuracy from the slot: Evaluating draft selections in the National Hockey League

Abstract

The National Hockey League (NHL) entry draft is a process wherein teams make sequential selections from a pool of eligible players. Given the young age of prospects, drafting requires long‐term forecasting of future performance under a high level of uncertainty. This study assessed the selection accuracy across all seven rounds of the draft, as well as between lottery and non‐lottery picks within the first round. NHL performance data were collected for all forwards (N = 956) and defensemen (N = 558) drafted between 2007 and 2014. In both groups, Kruskal‐Wallis H tests conducted between draft rounds revealed a significant, relatively strong, overall effect of draft order on future performance. However, Mann‐Whitney U post‐hoc tests showed projecting future performance of forwards was only accurate in the first two rounds, while for defensemen, selection was only accurate in the first round. Moreover, forwards selected with lottery picks in the first round outperformed their non‐lottery peers offensively but not defensively. As for defensemen, those selected with lottery picks did not differ from their non‐lottery peers in offensive or defensive performance. Our findings highlight substantial inaccuracies in the NHL draft, particularly past the first two rounds of selection. We offer multiple possible explanations driving such inaccuracies that could form the basis for further work in this area.

Storm Clouds on the Horizon: On the Emerging Need to Tighten Selection Policies

“…While these approaches can lead to successful athlete selection, poor accuracy rates reported in recent research suggest there is much we do not know about how selection decisions are made and how this process might be improved (Roberts et al, 2019 ). For example, even at professional levels – where scouting and analytics resources are abundant – the accuracy of selection is limited (Koz et al, 2012 ; Farah and Baker, 2020 ; Johnston et al, 2021 ). For example, a systematic review completed on the accuracy and efficacy of the draft system for the major professional sports in North America (i.e., National Basketball League, the National Football League etc.)…”

Anthropometric and physical fitness indicators in the combine draft between the finalist and the eliminated player in the national basketball association all-star slam dunk contest

“…Therefore, rookies, who rank in the top sequence, always attract more attention in the future session [3]. In order to diagnose current physical condition as well as to predict the future achievement for athletes, anthropometry and physical fitness test in the combine draft has been extensively applied in the competitive sports [1,2,[4][5][6]. Likewise, sports performance in the slam dunk contest may also be explained by anthropometry and physical fitness test in the combine draft.…”