Achieving The 1.5 °C Goal with Equitable Mitigation in the Latin American Countries

Abstract

During the past years, the impact of climate change in the Latin America region has become more evident, and is affecting its natural resources and delaying sustainable development. Achieving the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement while ensuring the right to sustainable development, is of particular interest for regions such as Latin America which are highly vulnerable and have a low capacity of adaptation. This article seeks to analyse if the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted within the Paris Agreement framework by the Latin American countries align with achieving the 1.5°C goal. For this analysis, the cumulative emissions for the 2018–2100 period are distributed among the region and its countries using the climate justice criteria (equality and historical responsibility) outlined in the Model of Climate Justice (MCJ). The results of the MCJ compatible with the 1.5°C global temperature scenario are then compared with the cumulative emissions implied in the NDCs submitted by the Latin American countries. Two main conclusions are obtained from the NDC analysis. First, the Latin American region, in 2030, will consume 67.8% of the emissions budget allocated by the MCJ until the end of the century. Second, this percentage could be reduced if, firstly, the conditional commitments within the NDC that require foreign aid are achieved, and, secondly, those countries that will consume their entire emissions budget by 2030 submit reviewed NDCs that increase the ambition of their mitigation commitments.