Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract:There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers dealing with robustness and adaptive plans have begun to appear, but the literature is fragmented. The papers appear in disparate journals, and deal with a wide variety of policy domains. This paper (1) describes and compares a family of related conceptual approaches to designing a sustainable plan, and (2) describes several computational tools supporting these approaches. The conceptual approaches all have their roots in an approach to longterm planning called Assumption-Based Planning. Guiding principles for the design of a sustainable adaptive plan are: explore a wide variety of relevant uncertainties, connect short-term targets to long-term goals over time, commit to short-term actions while keeping options open, and continuously monitor the world and take actions if necessary. A key computational tool across the conceptual approaches is a fast, simple (policy analysis) model that is used to make large numbers of runs, in order to explore the full range of uncertainties and to identify situations in which the plan would fail. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2013, 5 956

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

“…In this context, scenario discovery is used to identify the combination of uncertainties under which a candidate policy performs poorly, the vulnerabilities of a candidate policy, allowing for the iterative improvement of this policy. The use of scenario discovery for Robust Decision Making suggests that it could also be used in other planning approaches that design plans based on an analysis of the conditions under which a plan fails to meet its goals [40] 3 A global container shipping model…”

A limits-oriented approach to sustainable planning assessments: a comparative analysis of South East Queensland (Australia) and Lombardia (Italy)

“…Comparing several approaches for adaptive planning and decision-making rooted in Assumption-Based Planning (APB), Walker et al (2013) outline that the contribution and scope of ABP is rather to prevent an existing plan from failing than to create a new plan. SEA is a procedure conceived to achieve both these goals, since it develops contemporarily to a plan's process, while promoting the consideration of alternatives that can deliver more feasible and more sustainable plan's outcomes.…”

“…SEA is a procedure conceived to achieve both these goals, since it develops contemporarily to a plan's process, while promoting the consideration of alternatives that can deliver more feasible and more sustainable plan's outcomes. Each of the adaptive planning approaches developed by Walker et al (2013) has the potential to contribute to deliver better SEA protocols. However, some of them display more affinity with the current framework of SEA goals and features.…”

“…Adaptive Policy Making (APM) and Robust Decision Making (RDM) go one step back from other ABP approaches, since they do not move from the assumption that a plan exist but rather contribute the first design of the plan to be examined (Walker et al 2013). This draws a similarity between SEA and the processes underlying APM and RDM, which begin with 'scoping' or 'stage setting' and move throughout assembling a plan and appraising it to deliver a 'plot of expected outcomes' or 'trigger responses' Hall et al 2012).…”

“…The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) conceived by Walker et al (2013) combine several approaches grounded in ABP by proposing a framework that begins with the definition of goals and ends with monitoring the plan's outcomes. This represents an advanced framework suitable for the development of dynamic adaptive plans, a goal that SEA has the potential to trigger whereas adaptive SEA protocols are in place.…”