Adaptation to the climate change: Interest of a prospective approach / Adaptation au changement climatique : l'intérêt d'une démarche prospective

Abstract

Abstract. The current challenges of the agronomic research and in particular the adaptation of agriculture to climate change, require a very broad disciplinary mobilization. To meet these challenges, which go beyond its disciplinary and territorial organization, the INRA initiated a new system of interdisciplinary piloting of research. Thus, the métaprogramme ACCAF is trying to understand the joint effects of the various modifications caused by climate change on terrestrial farming and natural environments, and to define adaptation strategies of adaptation as well as their environmental and socio-economic consequences. Within this framework, twenty-three research laboratories have been collaborating in the project LACCAVE and united their efforts in the project LACCAVE in order to examine the effects of climate change on the vine and wine sector. In addition to six disciplinary working groups, this project is made up of an interdisciplinary group including researchers and experts of public institution working with the sector, which has carried out a foresight exercise. By directing the reflection towards a medium-long term future , this prospective exercise authorizes us to leave the temporal horizon of the negotiation and the dictatorship of emergency. As the long-term future is neither known nor recognizable, the evolutions are considered as combinations of assumptions expressed in one potential form and its opposite. For the prospective in the LACCAVE program, four strategies of adaptation of viticulture for 2030-2050 were predefined and a collective and pluridisciplinary work made possible the writing of a plausible way of events leading to each strategy. These results will then be used to debate with the actors of the wine sector at various geographical levels, in order to contribute to the development and the consolidation of choices of strategies of adaptation of the vineyards to climate change. The presentation will focus on this original methodology and its specific implementation. Stories are detailed in another article "Work of prospective on the adaptation of the viticulture to climate change: which series of events could support various adaptation strategies?"

La filière Vigne et Vin face au changement climatique : enseignements d’un forum de prospective pour le Val de Loire

“…Des hypothèses de différentes natures (techniques, économiques, réglementaires, rôle de l'état ou des consommateurs, contexte inter-national…) ont été collectées par expertise et par enquêtes dans 3 régions. Ces hypothèses ont été sélectionnées et combinées pour préciser les scénarios d'adaptation et en proposer des récits cohérents (Aigrain et al, 2016).…”

“…Ces effets, déjà observés, vont s'amplifier et varier selon les régions, les scénarios climatiques… et les choix d'adaptation des acteurs de la filière. Pour analyser les conditions de ces adaptations, l'Inra (aujourd'hui INRAE) conduit depuis 2013 le projet LACCAVE (aujourd'hui LACCAVE2.21) 1 avec comme action importante un exercice de prospective sur la filière à l'horizon 2050 (Aigrain et al, 2016).…”

The results of grapevine breeding in the Republic of Moldova – in context of climatic and socio-economic challenges

“…Synthesis of the literature sources concerning the impact of CC on the vitiviniculture sector [8,9] established the variety, diversity and complexity of topics. The assessment of the dynamics of the main climatic factors during the last century and forecasts for the future years and a longer period of time [10][11][12][13] denote the trend of increasing the average air temperatures, the danger of droughts in some regions, virulence of pathogens and pests. It was found that the data of the phenological phases shift with 10-20 days compared to the middle of the 20th century [10,11,[14][15][16] and, in connection with this, the change in the characteristics of the obtained productionthe increase of the alcoholic level, the decrease of acidity at harvesting, the change of the aromatic and polyphenolic profile, the decrease of the yield.…”

“…Various solutions are proposed for monitoring and mitigating the consequences of CC: the creation of a measurement network and a web platform (the ADVICLIM Project) [15], the development of strategies and adaptation methodology [11]; the use of potential of the European Climate Assessment Tool (ECA & D) to monitor climate change is examined [17].…”

L'utilisation par la viticulture française d'un exercice de prospective pour l'élaboration d'une stratégie d'adaptation au changement climatique

“…Institut National de l'Origine et de la Qualité 2. 'Établissement national des produits de l'agriculture et de la mer.© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences.…”