Adapting Douglas-fir forestry in Central Europe: evaluation, application, and uncertainty analysis of a genetically based model

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Weißenbacher, Lambert; Schueler, Silvio

doi:10.1007/s10342-016-0984-5

Cited by 50 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Therefore, their true dispersal capacity has not yet been manifested; thus, these results are biased by the highest uncertainty among the species studied. Moreover, the lower performance of P. menziesii is connected with mismatch in climate conditions between source and target localities, and therefore, lower level of adaptation (Chakraborty et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

Dyderski

Paź

Frelich

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

688

403

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Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

Dyderski

Paź

Frelich

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

688

403

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“…In a recent study, we developed two universal response functions (URFs), that predict the intraspecific phenotypic variation of functional traits such as dominant tree height and basal area of the North American Douglas-fir Pseudotsuga menziesii for plantations in central Europe as a response to climatic drivers (Chakraborty et al 2015(Chakraborty et al , 2016. In URFs, the relationships between two functional traits (tree height and basal area) and the environmental variables are mathematically specified as causal relations allowing a mechanistic understanding of trait variation and species distribution although the model formulations are correlative and empirical in nature (Dormann et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, recent occurrence based-SDMs (Boiffin et al 2017) calibrated with presence/ absence data in North America failed to predict the observed occurrence of Douglas-fir in Europe, thus questioning the validity of such traditional models when extrapolated. Our universal response functions (URFs) (Wang et al 2010), are based on extensive provenance trial data from Austria and southern Germany and can be applied at any putative planting site in Europe (Chakraborty et al 2015) to predict future growth performance and to identify the most suitable planting stock for stand establishment (Chakraborty et al 2016). The URFs combine genetic effects, i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic trials improve the transfer of Douglas‐fir distribution models across continents

et al. 2018

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Climate change is likely to result in novel conditions with no analogy to current climate. Therefore, the application of species distribution models (SDMs) based on the correlation between observed species’ occurrence and their environment is questionable and calls for a better understanding of the traits that determine species occurrence. Here, we compared two intraspecific, trait‐based SDMs with occurrence‐based SDMs, all developed from European data, and analyzed their transferability to the native range of Douglas‐fir in North America. With data from 50 provenance trials of Douglas‐fir in central Europe multivariate universal response functions (URFs) were developed for two functional traits (dominant tree height and basal area) which are good indicators of growth and vitality under given environmental conditions. These trials included 290 North American provenances of Douglas‐fir. The URFs combine genetic effects i.e. the climate of provenance origin and environmental effects, i.e. the climate of planting locations into an integrated model to predict the respective functional trait from climate data. The URFs were applied as SDMs (URF‐SDMs) by converting growth performances into occurrence. For comparison, an ensemble occurrence‐based SDM was developed and block cross validated with the BIOMOD2 modeling platform utilizing the observed occurrence of Douglas‐fir in Europe. The two trait based SDMs and the occurrence‐based SDM, all calibrated with data from Europe, were applied to predict the known distribution of Douglas‐fir in its introduced and native range in Europe and North America. Both models performed well within their calibration range in Europe, but model transfer to its native range in North America was superior in case of the URF‐SDMs showing similar predictive power as SDMs developed in North America itself. The high transferability of the URF‐SDMs is a testimony of their applicability under novel climatic conditions highlighting the role of intraspecific trait variation for adaptation planning in climate change.

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“…In Europe, excluding the most northern parts, provenance trials and practical experience cover mostly coastal provenances. In a future climate these experiences would be advantageous for more northern growing sites (Eilmann et al 2013;Isaac-Renton et al 2014;Chakraborty et al 2016). In Norway, Finland and Sweden, provenance trials found the interior provenances to be superior to the coastal (Kurkela 1981;Magnesen 1987;Martinsson and Kollenmark 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in bud burst timing and bud freezing tolerance among interior and coastal seed sources of Douglas fir

Malmqvist

Wallin

Lindström

et al. 2017

Trees

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Key message The Douglas fir provenance Three Valley was found most suitable for planting in mid-Sweden. Greenhouse tests can most likely predict how different Douglas fir provenances will perform in the field. Abstract The need for species that will grow well through ongoing climate change has increased the interest in Douglas fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] in Sweden. One of the most common problems seen in plantations of Douglas fir seedlings is damage caused by late spring frost, known to be highly correlated with the timing of bud burst. The objective of this study was to investigate spring-related bud development under Nordic conditions of seven Douglas fir provenances and to compare data with a local provenance of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst). Results from a field trial and a greenhouse-based study were compared. The interior Douglas fir provenances exhibited an earlier bud burst than coastal provenances, both in the greenhouse and in the field trial. When comparing differences within the groups of interior and coastal Douglas fir provenances, no differences could be found. The local Norway spruce, only grown in the greenhouse, showed an intermediate bud development profile similar to the interior Douglas fir provenance Three Valley. We therefore suggest that Three Valley could be planted at the same locations as the investigated local provenance of Norway spruce in mid-Sweden. To avoid spring frost damage the Douglas fir seedlings need to be frozen stored and planted late in spring. Planting under shelterwood can also help protect the seedlings from spring frost damages. As similar results for bud development patterns of Douglas fir and Norway spruce provenances were obtained from the greenhouse and field trials, greenhouse tests could facilitate selection of provenances.

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Adapting Douglas-fir forestry in Central Europe: evaluation, application, and uncertainty analysis of a genetically based model

Cited by 50 publications

References 38 publications

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

Genetic trials improve the transfer of Douglas‐fir distribution models across continents

Differences in bud burst timing and bud freezing tolerance among interior and coastal seed sources of Douglas fir

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